As the battle for Aleppo reaches an endgame, EU officials have understood that demands for Assad to step down are unrealistic. There is a growing sense that the West has been sidelined in the Syrian crisis.
Instead, the EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, put new proposals to opposition leaders at a meeting two weeks ago, with an offer of aid and investment. The proposals were in line with United Nations resolutions calling for a “political transition” in Syria.
The report mentions “there is more and more a feeling in the West that the US have been pushed aside as the Western partner in the negotiations regarding Syria”. Mogherini has presented new proposals to the Syrian opposition which include transfer of power to the Syrian provinces, which will allow the moderate forces to merge with local security forces.
The offer is to maintain the State’s central power “but with a more democratic organisation”. The report does not mention Assad’s fate but says that those proposals are compatible with the UNSC resolutions that call for a transitional power in Syria, which essentially means no future for Assad.
But the powerlessness of UN institutions and the EU are obvious. The fate of rebel-held Aleppo spells the abject failure of the west’s contradictory and piecemeal policies.
In reality the Syrian forces are avoiding casualties and use their overwhelming firepower to clear the way before their infantry proceeds. This demolishes any defense line the “rebels” can set up even before the real fighting starts. Only hardened and very disciplined troops could hold such a line under fire and offer real resistance. The “rebels” can’t.
For European states – France and the UK in particular – that have held onto the pursuit of a near-term transition longer than most, these developments represent a critical point of reckoning.
A reassessment of what remains possible is badly needed, something that has long eluded European capitals and been a key factor in their ongoing irrelevance to international diplomatic efforts.
