The author of the study, Alexander Kubis, explained to Sputnik News what he thought immigration was really about.
Kubis, who represents the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), says it appears that most of the mass media have misinterpreted the findings and messages of their work. Although the German labor market requires around 260 000 immigrants annually by 2060, it is not about just any immigrants, but about highly qualified workers, according to Kubis.
“Current immigration, which has been caused by the high inflows of largely unqualified refugees in recent years, is not what the German labor market needs,” he explained.
The shortage of skilled workers is due to the demographic situation in Germany, which will not meet the demand for skilled workers with domestic reserves in a good economic phase. “In the 50s, many families gave birth. So just ten years ago, very few people retired,” the expert said. But because society is aging rapidly, very soon significantly more people will retire, while youths are still missing.
Many critics of immigration are primarily concerned about the need to integrate German unemployed workers into the German labor market. This opinion is correct, according to Kubis. “Before immigration, the first task of the state should be to look after the locals and their qualifications”.
According to Statista, from 2015 to 2017 about 5,5 million people immigrated to Germany , but at the same time about 3,5 million people emigrated, including about 668 000 Germans. Even before the refugee crisis, immigration had been quite high: 1,4 million immigrants compared to 914 000 emigrants in 2014 and 1,2 million immigrants against 798 000 emigrants in 2013.
What the German labor market needs in addition, is calculated as so-called net immigration, the positive difference. According to Kubis, today’s 260 000 people a year, according to the latest study, are already fewer immigrants than were needed just a few years ago, because immigration in recent years has already reduced demand.
The need for immigration of well-qualified workers from Europe is set to decrease in the future, because EU society is aging and the economic situation in countries of origin, such as Spain, is expected to stabilize somewhat.
Already, many foreign workers are emigrating from Germany, says the expert. In addition to his colleagues, he also pointed out that the recruitment of professionals is very costly. “That’s why we do not advocate paying attention to immigration, but rather delaying the brain drain.”
Immigrants should not be competing with the unemployed and less qualified workers in Germany. They should rather be well-qualified and occupy vacancies on their own. Since the language barrier and education are usually not a problem for them, their integration normally happen at a very low cost.
The researcher admitted that he did not deal with the current problems facing the German labor market in the study, but rather measured long-term development. When asked about how many immigrants Germany would need, he also looked at the alternatives, such as increasing the retirement age to 70, a slightly higher birth rate, or better employment of women. Those factors alone were not enough to solve the aging crisis, however.
“We have to get away from the idea that immigration is a bad thing. It is good if immigrants are well qualified. The problem at the moment is that immigration has significantly more need for skills.”
Someone has to pay for the state’s pensions in the end, the expert continued. “If we refrain from immigration and the population shrinks, who will then finance the social system?” Germany produces a lot of innovative products and sells them at a high price. This innovation must be preserved. “For this, immigration must be particular and not delayed by high investments,” he concluded.
All this would have to be taken into account when crafting an effective immigration law, he added.
But in a city such as Duisburg, less and less schoolchildren speak the German language. According to an evaluation done by the council, the proportion of those who spoke German fluently in the school entrance examinations was 8,2 percent.
The Rheinische Post reported that accordingly, 16,4 percent of future first-graders can not speak German at all.
The reason for the alarming numbers is the increased proportion of children with a migration background. Just under half of the children (49,9 percent) grew up in a home with German as their first language. In 50,1 percent of the cases, a different language was spoken at home.
In some districts such as Marxloh, the proportion of children with a different mother tongue is 74,7 percent. The parents of the children are often not German and most are unable to respond to questions posed by authorities.
