Russian Jets Still at Syrian Base, Jolani Pushes Back on Total Exit for Moscow

Al Jazeera has released a new video that it says shows Russian combat jets still at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria despite ongoing withdrawals. The fate of Russia’s presence at Khmeimim, as well as at its Tartus naval base, remains a hot topic of interest globally three weeks after the fall of long-time Syrian dictator and ally of Moscow Bashar Al Assad. Just this weekend, the head of the rebel coalition that ousted Assad pushed back on calls for a complete disengagement with the Kremlin, including when it comes to military affairs.

Al Jazeera released the footage of Khmeimim (also written Hmeimim) earlier today, taken using a drone and seen below, but did not say when it was shot. A machine translation of the accompanying Arab text says “exclusive footage from Al Jazeera shows a large presence of warplanes inside the Russian Hmeimim base.” TWZ was not able to directly align what is seen in the clips with available satellite taken of the base recently. Other similar, but distinctly different footage of Khmeimim captured using a drone emerged back on Dec. 12.

مشاهد خاصة للجزيرة تظهر تواجد كبير لطائرات حربية داخل قاعدة حميميم الروسية#فيديو pic.twitter.com/uECy9iUndG

— الجزيرة سوريا (@AJA_Syria) December 30, 2024

The footage from Al Jazeera does show three Flanker-series fighters and a swing-wing Su-24 Fencer combat jet under protected shelters at the northeastern end of the base. Another view shows what looks to be four more Flankers and/or Su-34 Fullbacks, which both have prominent “stingers” that extend from their tail ends, as well as six additional Fencers.

The video from Al Jazeera also shows additional aircraft and other activity at Khmeimim, including two Russian Il-76 Candid cargo planes and another one belonging to Syrian Airlines, on an open apron at the northwestern end of the facility. The Syrian Airlines Il-76 may be the one that went missing in the final chaotic moments before Assad’s fall, as you can read more about here.

Smaller An-26 Curl and An-72 Coaler cargo aircraft, as well as an An-30 Clank, are visible elsewhere at Khmeimim in the latest footage from Al Jazeera. The An-30 is ostensibly an aerial survey aircraft, but can also be used as a transport.

The video prominently shows ground-based radars still in operation at the base, as well. At least one of the radars looks to be a variant of the P-18, which can be used for air traffic control and general air surveillance.

At the same time, even in the drone footage Al Jazeera published, there are signs that Russia is continuing to withdraw from Khmeimim. The video shows smoke billowing from an area just off to the side of the open apron where the Il-76s are parked, which could be from the burning of materiel. Destroying certain assets in place using fire and other means is commonly seen when military forces depart overseas facilities, especially if they have to do so on relatively short notice following major upheaval in a country.

This newer drone video of Khmeimim Air Base in Syria appears to show the Russians burning whatever this collection of items is, visible here on Maxar images from December 13th. https://t.co/l8Z8OwsyHH pic.twitter.com/NDbByGun5k

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) December 30, 2024

The fact that drones can be flown so close to Khmeimim highlights the current vulnerability of Russian aircraft and other assets on the ground at the base. Russia’s military had already removed air defenses, including an S-400 surface-to-air missile system, and other materiel from Khmeimim. Russian forces that had been deployed elsewhere in Syria have also been congregating in recent weeks at the base, which is now under the watchful eye of rebel forces.

Representatives of the new Syrian authorities are inspecting Russian Armed Forces armored vehicles at the gates of the checkpoint of the Russian airbase Khmeimim in Latakia. In fact, there can be no talk of defense or resistance — the fate of the base is entirely in the hands of… pic.twitter.com/283hQeS5vk

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 29, 2024

Russia’s forces have been separately massing at the Tartus naval base along with other signs of plans to withdraw from that facility. A Monolit-B coastal surface and air surveillance radar that had been in place for years to provide important situational awareness around the facility notably looks to have at least been packed up weeks ago.

Hard to tell these days if the gate at Khmeimim airbase is meant to keep the Syrians out or the Russians in pic.twitter.com/Ihfl3YZBEE

— Preston Stewart (@prestonstew_) December 30, 2024

Satellite imagery has continued to show Russian warships holding just off the coast of Tartus amid reports that amphibious warfare ships and commercial cargo vessels are headed there to collect personnel and materiel. The Russian cargo ship Ursa Major, which may have been headed for Tartus, notably sank in the Mediterranean last week after reportedly suffering an explosion in its engine room. Much about the circumstances surrounding the incident remains unclear, as you can read more about here.

The December 17th Maxar imagery shows that Russia has now removed its Monolit-B coastal sea-surface and air radar from its fixed location at Tartus where it was deployed for years.A major asset for the base and another sign that Tartus will cease to operate in the near future.

— Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social) 2024-12-20T18:45:09.402Z

Even before Assad fell, TWZ highlighted the significance of Russia’s Khmeimim and Tartus bases and explored questions about what might happen to them if Assad were to be ousted from power. The facilities offer the Kremlin highly strategic and unique air and naval power projection nodes for operations in the Mediterranean and Africa. Russia’s intervention in Syria beginning in 2015 was instrumental in keeping Assad in power and, by extension, retaining access to these important facilities. The regime in Damascus rewarded Moscow by essentially gifting it the bases through a 49-year “lease” deal in 2017. There are reports that Russia could be redeploying forces from Syria to bases in Libya and elsewhere in Africa.

🇷🇺Med Sea Flotilla🇷🇺
Sentinel 2 from 25 Dec 2024 of the port of Tartus and the anchorage

Piers still empty and equipment waiting to load

North of the piers are Adm Grigorovich and Golovko

Caveats apply but Ropucha Class Shabalin may be inbound… pic.twitter.com/ezj1OPYCC6

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) December 25, 2024

Russia’s relationship with Assad and its active operations against the same rebels now seeking to form a new Syrian government have raised obvious questions about the future of its bases in the country. Combat jets at Khmeimim were still flying strikes against rebel forces right up until the collapse of the former regime.

However, “we don’t want Russia to exit Syria in a way that undermines its relationship with our country,” Ahmad Al Sharaa said in an interview with Saudi Arabian state-owned news outlet Al Arabiya this weekend. “We do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way that some wish.”

Al Sharaa, still better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad Al Jolani (and other simply just as Jolani), is head of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the rebel coalition that deposed Assad.

“All of Syria’s arms are of Russian origin, and many power plants are managed by Russian experts,” Al Sharaa further told Al Arabiya, while also highlighting the “deep strategic interests” of what he described as the “second most powerful country in the world.”

In his interview with Al Arabiya, Al Sharaa also said that “Syria cannot continue without relations with an important regional country like Iran,” but stressed that relations “must be based on respect for the sovereignty of both countries and noninterference in the affairs of both countries.” The HTS leader has been particularly vocal in his criticism of the regime in Tehran, another one of Assad’s major foreign benefactors, and how it wields its regional influence.

Since the fall of Assad, Al Sharaa has been very actively working broadly to present the new government HTS is working to form as a pragmatic and moderate entity. HTS is an evolution of an Al Qaeda franchise in Syria, but claimed to have broken ties with the international terrorist organization in 2016. HTS itself remains a designated terrorist group in Russia, as well as the United States and many other countries. The U.S. government is reportedly set to withdraw a $10 million bounty on Al Sharaa personally following a visit to the country by an American delegation earlier this month.

As the fledging government in Damascus works to move Syria beyond its pariah status under Assad, it is also facing pressure to realign itself, particularly away from Russia. Ukraine has notably been positioning itself as an alternative partner for the new Syrian government. Ukrainian operatives had reportedly worked with Syrian rebel groups, particularly when it came to providing assistance in expanding their kamikaze drone capabilities, in the lead-up to the fall of Assad.

“We believe that from a strategic point of view, the removal of Russia’s presence in Syria will contribute to the stability of not only the Syrian state but the entire Middle East and Africa,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha‎ said in a statement around an official visit to Damascus just today where he met with Al Sharaa and others. “The Russian and Assad regimes supported each other because they were based on violence and torture.”

UA foreign minister met Jolani December 30

For their part, Russian authorities have persistently claimed that no final decision has been reached on Khmeimim and Tartus, despite reports that they could be on the verge of being forced out of Syria.

HTS-led authorities in Damascus still face broad challenges in establishing a functional nationwide government in a country where various other domestic and international actors continue to hold significant sway. Fighting between Turkish-supported and U.S.-backed forces in the northeastern end of the country has spiked since the fall of Assad. Israel is also now occupying a portion of southern Syria, ostensibly as a buffer zone amid the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Israeli and American forces have also taken advantage of the newly permissive airspace over Syria, especially the once heavily guarded western end of the country, to launch major airstrikes in recent weeks targeting former regime military assets and ISIS terrorists, respectively.

For the moment, at least, Russia does continue to maintain a military presence in Syria, including combat jets still at Khmeimim, despite continued signs of withdrawal.

Source: The War Zone