German Coalition Politics: A Well-Aimed Shot in the Foot

The result could be a rotten black-red coalition compromise with a green or yellow side dish that continues Merkel’s open borders policy.

In Austria, the attempt to form a black-blue government failed essentially because of their lax migration policy. The process is a political warning sign for Berlin, because in Germany too, no viable government coalition is in sight.

Austrian FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl is striving to change his country. His most important political goal was a “migration policy that protects the interests of our country and its people”. The ÖVP will not be playin along however – that much became clear in the coalition negotiations.

In Germany, the AfD and the Union’s candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, claim to want to implement the will of a very solid two-thirds majority in the population for a change in migration policy. However, the CDU and CSU categorically rule out forming a government with the AfD and will not be able to come down from their high horse of total rejection of the FPÖ’s German sister party without total political damage in the foreseeable future.

The SPD claims that any EU government that turns away refugees at its borders is systematically committing human rights violations. It cannot support the CDU/CSU’s migration policy any more than Friedrich Merz can form a coalition with the AfD.

In this situation, the Greens and the smaller parties Die Linke, BSW and FDP are no irrelevant. They may proclaim to be as politically demanding and as willing to form a coalition as they like: without a coalition core made up of the CDU, CSU and SPD, it is not enough to form a government.

The looming end of the rule of the old parties in the German political landscape opens up interesting perspectives. It is possible that even a merger between the AfD and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) can no longer be ruled out. At least that is what left-wing veteran Gregor Gysi (former SED party leader) thinks.

He could imagine that the “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” (BSW) could form a coalition with the AfD in the future. “Yes, I can imagine it,” Gysi told journalists from the Ippen-Media editorial association in response to a question. “Sahra once said: Höcke is a right-wing extremist, but the others are conservative-liberal.” Gysi added: “Sahra is using such formulations to prepare a collaboration with the AfD.”

According to Gysi, government cooperation in the federal states is conceivable. “In Thuringia, Höcke is too extreme, but in other states I trust them to do it, as long as the AfD acts a little more moderately.”

But such speculation is pure theatre. At the moment, it is by no means certain whether the BSW has a political future at all. The party is currently being hit by a wave of resignations and will have difficulty clearing the five percent hurdle in the federal election on February 23.

Meanwhile, the elephant in the room is getting bigger every day. The almost one million Syrians currently living in Germany as “refugees” should actually be returning to their homeland. The government of Bashar al-Assad, which many allegedly saw as promoting a reign of terror, is finally over. In December, the Islamist organization Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) unexpectedly seized power.

The German government has even set up a specially funded returnee program.

But it is not just the returnee program that is finding little support. On the contrary, the number of asylum seekers from Syria is actually increasing. According to the Federal Statistical Office, Germany is still the main destination country for asylum seekers from all over the world, and in January the number rose again: by an impressive 22.5 percent compared to the previous month, to 14,920 initial applications.

With 30.4 percent of all first-time asylum applications, Syria remains the most popular country of origin for asylum seekers. Some 13 percent of applicants in January came from Afghanistan and 11.2 percent from Turkey.