The long unthinkable prospect of Ukraine fighting without US weapons, equipment or intelligence looks set to become a reality after the White House on Monday announced it would cut military aid to Kyiv.
A senior Ukrainian intelligence official said that Ukraine would probably run out of the last American military supplies in “two or three months”.
“After that, it will be very difficult for us,” the official told the Financial Times. “It will not be a total collapse, but we will be forced to withdraw from areas more quickly.”
In the fourth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops are fending off constant Russian attacks from the trenches of eastern and southern Ukraine. Along the 1,000km-long front line, the end of US military aid will have far-reaching consequences for the battered army, even if European allies supplement some of the missing equipment.
Washington announced its decision to suspend military aid three days after a clash in the Oval Office between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy prompted by the Ukrainian leader’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire without any guarantees to deter Russia from future aggression.
The White House said on Monday it was “pausing and reviewing” its military aid to ensure Ukraine’s leadership was “committed” to a peace deal.
Over the past three years, US military support totalled $65.9bn, according to the state department. While Congress appropriated close to $175bn, only part of that went directly to Ukraine. Some was used for other purposes such as training Ukrainian troops in the US.
The support has been extensive — from deliveries of artillery shells and armoured vehicles to the provision of sophisticated air defence systems, vehicle-launched mobile bridges, anti-tank mines and long-range missiles.
Crucially for Ukraine, that support includes intelligence sharing, which has reportedly not yet been suspended.
“The impact is generally hard to gauge, because there’s a fair amount of US support that isn’t publicly discussed,” said Michael Kofman, a military analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a US think-tank.
European allies have stepped up efforts in recent days to raise funds and procure military equipment for Ukraine. But the continent continues to struggle with scaling up arms production, and some critical equipment remains unique to the US.
A shortage of interceptor missiles for the five US-made Patriot systems in use by Ukraine would represent a major blow to the country’s defensive capabilities, just as Russia has been expanding its drone and missile strike campaign deep within Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Tuesday that “the Patriot is currently the only system able to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles”.
If the country’s military was forced to stop using the most sophisticated air defence system in its arsenal, “eventually, Ukraine would need to do a difficult prioritisation”, said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst monitoring the war for the Finland-based Black Bird Group. “Do you defend an airfield, or a power plant, or a factory making weapons?”
On the front line, where the bulk of the fighting now unfolds using a dizzying array of explosive-laden drones flying into soldiers, the impact would probably take several weeks to be felt.
While the overwhelming majority of drones used by Ukrainian troops are now domestically produced, the military still uses a wide range of US weapons and vehicles that require constant maintenance and a steady flow of spare parts.
A shortage of artillery shells could be partially offset by European efforts, with the EU planning to produce up to 2mn artillery shells in 2025.
“My general view is that we’ll start to see a major impact within a couple of months, and it will be primarily related to Ukraine’s ability to conduct precision strikes,” said Kofman.
US-provided Himars multiple rocket launchers have enabled Ukraine to destroy high-value targets such as command posts and logistical centres on Russian-held territory.
On Monday, Ukraine’s Special Forces released footage of a Himars strike using cluster ammunition that destroyed a modern Russian self-propelled “Malva” howitzer.
“We have no real substitute for the Himars,” said Pavlo Narozhny, a Ukrainian military analyst and co-founder of Reactive Post, an organisation supporting Ukrainian artillery units.
The Himars launchers have also enabled Ukraine to use long-range Atacms missiles to hit targets in Russia, as far as 300km away.
Narozhny said that Kyiv had UK and French Storm Shadow and Scalp long-range missiles, “but they aren’t the same, they’re much slower and easier to intercept”.
Even when launching the French and British long-range missiles, the Ukrainian army often relied on US decoy missiles such as the ADM-160 Mald to deflect Russian interceptors, said Narozhny.
“We usually first launch four or five of these dummy missiles before firing the Scalp,” he said, adding that Ukraine was able to produce similar decoys if the US stopped delivering them.
“We just need a bit of time to start production,” he added. Without US support, “the front won’t collapse, but Russia is going to keep advancing”, said Narozhny.
While not part of the formal US support paused by Washington, the most immediately harmful move for frontline units in Ukraine would be a shutdown of Elon Musk’s Starlink system, a satellite-powered internet provider whose use has become ubiquitous among Ukrainian forces thanks to its speed and reliability.
“If Starlink is shut down, problems will start immediately,” Yehor Firsov, a former Ukrainian MP now serving in the military, wrote in late February.
“Infantry in defensive dugouts, intelligence, drone and artillery crews, brigade and battalion headquarters . . . everyone uses Starlink.”
While Ukrainian forces can and do use radio communications, battlefield decisions rely heavily on a flow of video and photo footage that requires a steady broadband connection.
“It would be a hit, but we’re working on alternatives,” said an officer serving in a brigade in the country’s north-east. “I mean, we’re fighting in the Kursk region and there’s no Starlink there.”
Washington’s stunning decision to suspend aid comes as Ukraine has been speeding up efforts to develop its own capabilities.
“I said maybe a year ago that we need to train here in Ukraine as if the United States will disappear,” said Serhiy Prytula, head of one of Ukraine’s largest fundraising organisations for the military.
A few hours before Washington announced its decision to pause military support to Ukraine, the politician and volunteer said: “We’re hugely thankful for all the help the US gave to Ukraine, but we need to take care of ourselves, develop our own defence industry along with our European partners.”
Source: Financial Times
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