Will Italy Survive Its Birthrate?

The numbers paint a stark picture. In 2023, Italy’s total fertility rate (TFR) hovered around 1.24 children per woman, well below the 2.1 needed for a population to replace itself without immigration. This has been a trend for decades—since the 1980s, Italy’s TFR has rarely climbed above 1.5.

By 2022, births dropped to a record low of 379,000, while deaths were nearly double that at 661,000. That’s a natural population decline of over 280,000 in a single year. Fast forward to 2025, and if the trend holds, Italy’s population—currently around 59 million—could shrink to 48 million by 2070, according to ISTAT (the Italian National Institute of Statistics) projections.

The immediate issue isn’t extinction but the cascading effects. Fewer births mean an aging population—already, over 23% of Italians are 65 or older, one of the highest rates globally. By 2050, that could hit 35%. This strains pension systems, healthcare, and the workforce. In 2023, Italy’s old-age dependency ratio (people 65+ versus working-age 15-64) was 37.5%, and it’s climbing. Economically, a shrinking labor pool could choke GDP growth, especially since Italy’s productivity has been sluggish—averaging just 0.5% annual growth over the last two decades.

Can Italy survive this?

Yes, but it hinges on adaptation. Immigration could offset some decline—Italy took in about 450,000 migrants in 2022—but integration and political will are shaky. Anti-immigrant sentiment runs high, and policies like Meloni’s focus on boosting births (e.g., tax breaks, childcare subsidies) haven’t reversed the trend yet.

Culturally, Italians are having kids later—average age of first birth is 32—and prioritizing career or personal freedom over family, a shift tough to undo.

On the flip side, a smaller population could ease pressure on resources and infrastructure if managed right. Japan’s handling a similar crisis with automation and elderly care innovation, though Italy lags in tech adoption.

Without big moves—mass immigration, a cultural baby boom, or radical economic restructuring—Italy won’t collapse, but it’ll be a smaller, older, and likely poorer version of itself by century’s end. Survival’s possible; thriving’s the real challenge.

Abandoned villages

Estimating the exact number of abandoned villages in Italy is challenging due to varying definitions of “abandoned” and incomplete or outdated data. Nevertheless, based on available information, Italy is home to a significant number of deserted or nearly deserted settlements.

A 2016 report from an Italian environmental association, cited by The New York Times, suggests there are nearly 2,500 rural villages that are perilously depopulated, including both semi-abandoned and fully abandoned “ghost towns.” Other sources, like a comprehensive guide mentioned on traveltoitalyguide.com, estimate over 6,000 abandoned villages, ranging from small hamlets to larger towns, though this figure may include settlements with minimal remaining populations or those not officially tracked.

The discrepancy arises because some counts focus only on completely uninhabited sites, while others include villages with just a handful of residents or those at risk of abandonment. Meanwhile, efforts like the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) target 250 critically depopulated villages for revitalization, indicating a subset of the broader phenomenon.

Historically, these abandonments stem from natural disasters (earthquakes, landslides, floods), economic decline, emigration—especially from the poorer southern regions—as well as urban migration over the 20th century. Villages like Craco, Civita di Bagnoregio, and Roscigno Vecchia exemplify this trend, often left empty or with a single-digit population after such events.

Immigrants prefer cities and crime

The 1998-2000 Document of Migration Policy Planning was an early stab at setting priorities, but things got stricter with the 2002 Bossi-Fini Law, tying residency to employment and tightening legal migration. More recently, under Giorgia Meloni’s leadership since 2022, the focus has shifted toward curbing irregular arrivals—think deals with Tunisia and Libya to stop boats—while still expanding legal labor migration (452,000 worker entries planned for 2023-2025). The 2024 Law No. 187/2024 added protections for exploited workers, offering residence permits if they cooperate with authorities, alongside vocational training to shift them into legitimate jobs.

Practically, integration often hinges on cities. Urban areas like Rome and Milan see immigrants clustering in neighborhoods—Rome’s Tor Pignattara or Milan’s Via Padova.

Immigrant involvement in drug trafficking in Italy is a topic tied to broader migration patterns, economic realities, and organized crime dynamics. Italy’s location as a Mediterranean entry point makes it a hotspot for both migration and illicit trade, including drugs. Immigrants, particularly from North Africa, West Africa (notably Nigeria), and the Balkans, are often linked to drug trafficking networks, though the extent and nature of their roles vary.

Nigerian groups, for instance, have a well-documented presence. They’ve carved out a niche in Italy’s drug trade. These networks use these immigrants as low-level dealers or mules. A 2018 Guardian piece famously quoted Salvatore Buzzi from the “Mafia Capitale” scandal, saying, “Migrants are more profitable than drugs,” highlighting how criminal groups profit from both trafficking drugs and immigrants.

Nigerian women, many trafficked for sex work, are also coerced into drug smuggling, with over 80% of those arriving in Europe from Nigeria reportedly “sponsored” by traffickers, per the International Organization for Migration.

Data backs this up. The US State Department’s 2023 Trafficking in Persons Report notes that Italy’s immigrant-heavy agricultural sector—think seasonal workers from Romania, Pakistan, or Ivory Coast—faces labor trafficking risks, often overlapping with drug-related exploitation.

Meanwhile, the Global Organized Crime Index flags Italy’s cocaine market, the most lucrative drug trade, having Albanians and Moroccans handling import and distribution. Cocaine seizures are up—23 tons over years, per a 2023 Europol operation—showing the scale of the problem.

In Rome’s Tor Pignattara or Milan’s Via Padova, North African and Nigerian dealers operate openly. A 2022 Eurojust operation nabbed 24 suspects across Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, many tied to immigrant networks laundering drug money through art trades.

Despite this evidence, economists continue to argue that they’re propping up the pension system. The Meloni government’s dual track—hostile to asylum seekers, cautiously open to workers—reflects this balancing act, but without robust integration measures, it risks leaving newcomers embracing crime.