Kremlin Feeds Trump Peace Crumbs Over the Phone

The readouts from the Putin-Trump phone talk are out. The American and Russian versions emphasize completely different things (the US one finds time to talk about Israel of all things), but they both agree on one thing; work is to start immediately on a maritime and energy strikes ceasefires.

The White House:

“The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.”

The Kremlin:

“During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order.”

“The Russian President also responded constructively to Donald Trump’s idea of ​​implementing a well-known initiative concerning the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. It was agreed to begin negotiations to further elaborate specific details of such an agreement.”

So then huge accomplishment for Donald Trump, he has barely started and already has an energy strikes and a maritime ceasefire virtually in the bag? Not exactly.

The state of shipping out of Odessa. You can see reduced volumes in 2022, followed by a brief nadir in mid-2023 when the grain deal unraveled, and then an explosion of traffic as Ukraine started to ship even iron and other exports

A tacit maritime agreement has already been in power for well over a year now. Owing to Ukraine’s growing missile and drone capabilities Russia isn’t able to enact a blockade in accordance with prize law by intercepting and boarding merchant ships, and isn’t willing to go the “unrestricted” route and blockade Odessa by hitting merchants with mines and missiles, not the least because Ukraine has the ability to retaliate against commercial shipping going out of Russian Black Sea ports.

If this tacit truce becomes codified and public it is no great concession on the part of Moscow.

An undeclared agreement to not strike energy targets has also already been in effect twice before. The last such truce according to the Financial Times unraveled in early 2024 when Ukrainians restarted their long-range drone campaign against American urging. Reportedly by the summer of last year, the sides were back in talks to restore it, but the Russian side pulled out when Ukrainians crossed the border into Kursk.

So should this energy ceasefire come into existence it will merely be a return of something that already existed under Biden.

Moreover the Russian readout spells out the energy strikes embargo would last just 30 days. If so then it is almost completely meaningless. Russia already spaces out its missile strikes in intervals measured in weeks to build up stockpiles for larger, more saturating salvos. A 30-day pause would simply create a slightly longer lull and stockpile somewhat more missiles to be fired after the moratorium. (It is for this reason it is so easy for Putin to order such a moratorium right on the spot.)

On the main issue of a cease-fire on land, the Russian readout between-the-lines reports that Moscow again rejected such a proposal citing the infeasibility of such a truce while Kiev continues to conscript:

“In the context of the US President’s initiative to introduce a 30-day truce, the Russian side outlined a number of significant points regarding ensuring effective control over a possible ceasefire along the entire line of combat contact, the need to stop forced mobilization in Ukraine and rearm the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”

(This constant use of “forced mobilization” foreshadows the future Russian proposal under which Ukraine’s “forced mobilization” ceases while Russia’s “voluntary recruitment” continues.)

Moreover, Moscow links the success of continued diplomacy to end of influx of military aid to Kiev:

“It was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kiev.

I’ll say Moscow has thrown some crumbs Trump’s way that he can spin the way he wants to (“only I could get this done”), but so far he isn’t any nearer to war’s end than Biden who wasn’t even pursuing it.