Emmanuel Todd and Viktor Orbán: A Meeting of Minds on the West’s Decline

In April 2025, Budapest’s historic Carmelite Monastery, a 13th-century edifice repurposed as the Hungarian prime minister’s office, hosted an unlikely but telling rendezvous.

French demographer, historian, and publicist Emmanuel Todd, a provocative intellectual known for his prescient analyses of global power shifts, met with Hungary’s polarizing leader, Viktor Orbán. The encounter, warmly acknowledged by Orbán on X, was more than a diplomatic courtesy; it was a convergence of two figures united by their skepticism of Western liberal orthodoxy and their alarm at what they see as the moral and social unraveling of the West.

Their discussion, as Orbán hinted, centered on “the moral and social decline of the West, a development that will have dire consequences.”

Todd, in turn, lauded Hungary’s defiance, praising its commitment to “sovereignty and resisting external pressure.” This meeting, followed by Todd’s lecture titled Europe at the Crossroads at a conference organized by the 21st Century Institute and the Foundation for a Civic Hungary, underscores a broader ideological alignment that challenges the prevailing Western narrative. But what does this moment signify, and why does it matter?

Emmanuel Todd: The Prophet of Decline

Emmanuel Todd’s intellectual journey is one of bold predictions and rigorous scholarship. Born in 1951, Todd emerged from France’s academic elite, trained at the prestigious École Normale Supérieure and Cambridge University. His work blends demography, anthropology, and history to uncover the structural forces shaping societies. In 1976, at the age of 25, he gained international attention with The Final Fall, a book that predicted the Soviet Union’s collapse based on demographic indicators like rising infant mortality and declining birth rates. Critics scoffed, but by 1991, Todd’s foresight was vindicated.

His 2002 book, After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order, cemented his reputation as a seer. Writing before the Iraq War and the 2008 financial crisis, Todd argued that the United States was no longer the world’s unchallenged superpower. He pointed to economic overreach, cultural decadence, and ideological rigidity as signs of America’s decline. Using demographic data—falling birth rates, rising inequality, and educational stagnation—he forecasted a multipolar world where the US would struggle to maintain dominance. The book’s prescience became evident as America grappled with military quagmires, economic turmoil, and political polarization in the decades that followed.

In 2024, after the victory of Donald Trump in the US, Todd turned his gaze to broader problems regarding globalist elites with The Defeat of the West. This work, a scathing critique of their hubris, argues that the collective West—Europe and the United States—has entered a terminal decline.

He attributes this to several factors: the erosion of Protestant work ethics, the destabilizing effects of neoliberal globalization, and a cultural shift toward individualism that undermines social cohesion. Todd’s analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian war is particularly controversial. He contends that Western sanctions on Russia have backfired, strengthening Moscow’s economy while exposing Europe’s energy vulnerabilities.

He accuses globalists of misjudging Russia’s resilience and prioritizing ideological crusades over pragmatic diplomacy. These views have made him a lightning rod for criticism, with some labeling his work as Kremlin-apologetic, a charge he dismisses as reductive.

Viktor Orbán: Hungary’s Defiant Strongman

Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010 (and previously from 1998 to 2002), is no stranger to controversy. A former liberal dissident who helped topple Hungary’s communist regime, Orbán has transformed into the standard-bearer of “illiberal democracy.” His Fidesz party, backed by the Foundation for a Civic Hungary, has reshaped Hungary’s political landscape, consolidating power through constitutional reforms, media control, and judicial overhauls. Critics, including the European Union, accuse him of democratic backsliding, pointing to curtailed press freedoms and restrictions on civil society. In 2018, the European Parliament adopted the Sargentini Report, condemning Hungary’s erosion of rule of law—a move Orbán dismissed as liberal overreach.

Orbán’s vision is rooted in cultural nationalism and sovereignty. He champions “Christian values,” traditional family structures, and resistance to immigration, famously declaring in 2019, “We need Hungarian children,” not migrants, to secure the nation’s future. His policies, like subsidies for large families and tightened abortion laws, reflect this ethos. On the international stage, Orbán has courted non-Western powers like China and Russia, positioning Hungary as a bridge between East and West. His refusal to fully align with Western sanctions on Russia and his skepticism of NATO’s escalation in Ukraine echo Todd’s critiques, making their meeting a natural alignment.

The Budapest Encounter: A Shared Diagnosis

The Carmelite Monastery, perched on Budapest’s Castle Hill, is a fitting backdrop for this meeting. Once a religious sanctuary, it now symbolizes Orbán’s blend of tradition and power. On April 7, 2025, Todd and Orbán reportedly discussed the West’s “moral and social decline,” a theme central to both their worldviews. Orbán’s X post praised Todd’s scholarship, while Todd’s commendation of Hungary’s sovereignty struck a chord with Orbán’s narrative of defiance against EU and globalist pressures. Their dialogue likely touched on shared concerns: the hollowing out of Western institutions, the cultural fallout of secularism, and the geopolitical missteps in Ukraine.

Todd’s subsequent lecture, Europe at the Crossroads, delivered at a conference hosted by the 21st Century Institute and the Foundation for a Civic Hungary, expanded on these themes. The 21st Century Institute, closely tied to Orbán’s government, and the Fidesz-aligned Foundation for a Civic Hungary are platforms for promoting Hungary’s conservative agenda.

Todd’s address framed Europe as facing an existential crisis, driven by demographic stagnation, moral relativism, and economic dependence on a disinterested America. He likely reiterated his view that Europe’s obsession with “values” has blinded it to pragmatic realities, such as Russia’s strategic depth and China’s rising influence.

Historical Context: A Pattern of Dissent

This meeting is not an isolated event but part of a broader historical pattern of intellectuals and leaders challenging European dominance. In the 1970s, French philosopher Jean-François Revel warned of liberal democracies’ vulnerabilities in The Totalitarian Temptation. In the 1990s, Samuel Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations predicted cultural conflicts that resonate with Orbán’s rhetoric. Todd and Orbán fit this tradition of dissent, questioning the West’s notion of its moral superiority and strategic choices.

Hungary’s role as a hub for such ideas is also historically rooted. During the Cold War, Budapest was a center of anti-communist resistance, with figures like Orbán emerging from Western-backed networks. Today, Orbán has flipped the script, using Hungary to critique the West’s liberal excesses. His hosting of events like CPAC Hungary in 2022, attended by American conservatives like Tucker Carlson, and his alliances with anti-globalist European parties like Spain’s Vox, signal Hungary’s ambition to lead a global conservative counter-movement.

Why It Matters: A Challenge to Globalists

The Todd-Orbán meeting is a microcosm of a larger ideological battle. For Todd, the West’s decline is a structural inevitability, evident in data like Europe’s 1.5 average fertility rate (well below replacement level) and America’s soaring debt-to-GDP ratio (projected to hit 140% by 2030). For Orbán, it’s a cultural and political failure, exemplified by the EU’s migration policies and “gender ideology.” Both see Hungary as a holdout, a nation preserving its identity against globalist tides.

Todd’s detractors, meanwhile, challenge his selective use of data, arguing that the West’s adaptability—its innovation, cultural diversity, and institutional resilience—belies his pessimism. The Ukraine war, far from proving Russian weakness, has galvanized China and exposed NATO’s military limitations.

Yet, the Todd-Orbán alliance resonates because it taps into real anxieties. Rising inequality, cultural fragmentation, and geopolitical uncertainty fuel skepticism of liberal triumphalism. Todd’s demographic lens highlights uncomfortable truths: aging populations in Europe strain welfare systems, while cultural shifts erode traditional norms. Orbán’s policies, like tax exemptions for mothers and bans on Pride marches, appeal to voters who feel alienated by progressive agendas.

Todd and Orbán’s meeting is a wake-up call. Europe must address its internal fractures—economic, cultural, and demographic—before they become fatal. Ignoring such warnings risks proving these thinkers right. For now, Budapest remains a crucible for these debates, and the Carmelite Monastery, with its ancient stones, stands witness to a clash of visions for the future.