10 Climate Predictions by Christopher Monckton That Turned Out to Be True

1. Global Warming Has Slowed in Recent Decades

Statement: Monckton noted in various talks, including a 2009 speech in St. Paul, Minnesota, that there hasn’t been significant global warming for 15 years.

Outcome: While global temperatures have continued to rise overall, the period from the late 1990s to early 2010s saw a slower rate of surface temperature increase, often referred to as the “global warming hiatus.” Studies, such as those from NOAA, confirm a reduced warming trend during this period, though it was later attributed to natural variability and ocean heat absorption rather than a cessation of warming.

2. Arctic Sea Ice Variability

Statement: Monckton claimed in a 2013 talk that Arctic sea ice had not declined consistently and cited periods of recovery, such as in March 2013.

Outcome: Arctic sea ice extent in March 2013 was higher than in previous years, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), showing short-term variability. For example, March 2013 saw an extent of about 15 million square kilometers, compared to the record low of 14.5 million in 2012.

3. Medieval Warm Period Was Comparable to Today

Statement: Monckton asserted in multiple presentations that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was as warm or warmer than current temperatures, citing historical climate data.

Outcome: Some paleoclimate studies, like those by Lamb (1965) and certain proxy reconstructions, suggest that parts of the Northern Hemisphere during the MWP (roughly 950–1250 AD) experienced temperatures comparable to the mid-20th century. Regional data, particularly in Europe, supports warm periods in some areas.

4. CO2 Has Social Benefits

Statement: In a paper for the World Federation of Scientists, Monckton argued that CO2 has a social benefit, not just a cost, due to its role in plant growth.

Outcome: Increased CO2 levels have been shown to enhance photosynthesis in certain plants (C3 plants like wheat and rice), leading to a “greening effect” observed in satellite data. A 2016 study in Nature Climate Change estimated a 30% increase in global vegetation due to CO2 fertilization since the 1980s.

5. Climate Models Overpredict Warming

Statement: Monckton has repeatedly showed that climate models exaggerate future warming, citing discrepancies between model predictions and observed temperatures.

Outcome: Some studies, like those by John Christy in 2017, have shown that certain climate models (e.g., CMIP5) overestimated mid-tropospheric warming in the tropics compared to satellite data from 1979–2015. The observed warming was about 0.13°C per decade, while some models predicted up to 0.21°C.

6. No Significant Sea Level Rise Acceleration

Statement: Monckton said in a 2010 speech that projections of dramatic sea level rise (e.g., meters by 2100) were exaggerated, predicting only modest increases (e.g., 6 cm).

Outcome: Tide gauge and satellite data show global sea level rise averaging 3.7 mm/year from 1993–2020, with no clear acceleration beyond this rate in many datasets. For instance, NOAA’s 2022 report projects 0.3–0.5 meters by 2100 under moderate scenarios, far less than earlier alarmist claims.

7. Antarctic Sea Ice Growth

Statement: Monckton claimed in 2013 that increases in Antarctic sea ice offset Arctic losses.

Outcome: From 1979 to 2014, Antarctic sea ice extent grew slightly, peaking at 20.1 million square kilometers in September 2014, according to NSIDC, partially offsetting Arctic declines.

8. No Ocean Heat Buildup for Decades

Statement: Monckton claimed in a 2010 talk that there had been “no ocean heat buildup for 50 years,” citing researchers like Catia Domingues.

Outcome: While ocean heat content has increased significantly since the 1970s, early datasets (pre-2000s) had uncertainties, and some studies, like Levitus et al. (2005), showed slower heat uptake in certain periods, particularly in the upper ocean.

9. Skepticism of “97% Consensus” on Climate Change

Statement: Monckton co-authored a paper claiming the widely cited “97% scientific consensus” on anthropogenic global warming was false, estimating it closer to 0.35%.

Outcome: The 97% figure, from studies like Cook et al. (2013), has been criticized for methodological issues, such as subjective categorization of papers. Monckton’s 0.35% is underestimated, but analyses like those by Legates et al. (2015) suggest the consensus on catastrophic warming is much lower than 97%.

10. World Government from Climate Talks Fall Apart

Statement: In a 2009 speech, Monckton warned that a UN climate summit in Copenhagen aimed to establish an “unelected world government.”

Outcome: The Copenhagen summit (2009) failed to produce a binding global agreement, and no centralized “world government” emerged from subsequent climate talks, as confirmed by the lack of such structures 15 years later.