Has Trump Lost Control to Netanyahu?

In our discussion on Monday, Nima and I examine the problematic situation in which Netanyahu has placed US President Donald Trump.

Trump’s threats to Iran are just an example of his method of negotiation by making threats to encourage a deal after which the threats are withdrawn. I do not think that Trump intended to attack Iran.  All he wanted was Iran’s agreement not to make nuclear weapons and to accept routine inspections of their nuclear facilities.  But by making military threats, Trump crawled out on a limb, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu cut the limb off behind Trump by injecting into the negotiations the additional demand that Iran give up it’s arsenal of missiles and agree to stop producing missiles. This demand obviously is unacceptable to Iranians as it would leave them unable to defend themselves against Israel’s attacks.

As Netanyahu’s intervention seems to have prevented an agreement, will Trump now have to go through with his threats and attack Iran, or instead, will Trump stand up to Netanyahu and denounce him for blocking the nuclear agreement? Who is the strongest? The president of the United States or the Israel Lobby headed by the Prime Minister of Israel?

This is the question.

Little doubt, the Zionists in the Trump administration, the neoconservatives, and the American armaments manufacturers are pleased that Netanyahu has outfoxed President Trump by positioning him such that Trump now has to back down from his threats or go ahead with the attack. An American president should never have placed himself in a position where he loses control over the situation.

This is a dangerous situation. Perhaps the Iranians can find a way to save face for Trump. Perhaps those silent elements in the US military, who understand the seriousness of the situation, can be brought out of their silence by the very seriousness of the situation.

Why is the situation serious? The Iranians say, and I believe them, that they can effectively attack, and will do so, US aircraft carriers and bases in the region as well as devastate Israel. What happens to American prestige if Iran destroys US aircraft carriers and US military bases?  Can Washington not go to the rescue of Israel suffering from Iranian missile attack? What can Washington do at this point other than to use nukes?

What would be the effect on Russia and on the Chinese New Silk Road of nuclear weapons going off in the vicinity? Would these two powerful military countries issue ultimatums to Washington not to use nuclear weapons or would they abandon their hopes for economic integration through BRICS and the New Silk Road and submit to American hegemony?

The question boils down to how capable American, Iranian, Russian and Chinese leaders are in recognizing reality. So far, none have shown capability at recognizing reality. When Iran had the strategic advantage, it backed off, leaving itself in its currently exposed position. The Russians, Chinese and Iranians never halted the escalation toward war by forming a mutual defense agreement that would have ended the problem before it could begin. Now that Netanyahu has brought the problem close to the wire, neither Russia nor China have done anything to deter an attack on Iran.

It would be simple to do so. Russian S-500 air defense systems manned by Russian troops could be set up in Iran. Squadrons of the latest Russian jet fighters could be stationed in Iran along with Chinese squadrons. Russian submarines could be deployed to the area. Russia could shut down Ukraine, something that should have been done four years ago, signaling Russia’s attention to a much more serious conflict. These measures would prevent war, not cause war. War will result from their absence.

A show of force would help those in the American military, who realize that the risks to the US and humanity are far greater than Israel warrants, to help American skeptics of Israel’s influence over US policy to find their voice and to speak out. But Russia and China have taken no actions that would provide evidence for those American military officers who see the danger of the situation to break ranks with the totally unrealistic consensus.

It is an extraordinary thing that the advent of nuclear weapons has been accompanied with a growing inability of western leaders to understand reality and the unintended consequences of their actions and inactions.