Wave of National Elections Reshaping the EU

The demarcation rituals of German politicians are apparently no longer taken seriously at the European level, as suggested by the recently revealed case of a joint chat group of right-wing and conservative MEPs.

A WhatsApp group set up by Swedish MEP Charlie Weimers (Sweden Democrats) brought together MEPs from the Christian Democratic EPP group with representatives from the right-wing ECR, Patriots for Europe, and ESN groups – including the AfD. The aim was to vote on a stricter return directive. In the LIBE Committee on March 9, 41 MEPs voted in favor of the stricter approach, including three CDU politicians and AfD MEP Mary Khan.

Weimers later justified the coordination in a public statement: “The firewall must not prevent the EU from passing urgently needed legislation. We need more of these chat groups.” Cooperation on the right of center is necessary to deliver results, Weimers argued. The Council’s compromise texts were made available “long before the final public position.” Key points of the proposal include reception centers outside the EU, up to 24 months’ detention for illegal migrants, and stricter sanctions.

Berlin Outraged

In Berlin, the cross-party involvement of the AfD sparked outrage. Chancellor Friedrich Merz personally called on EPP group leader Manfred Weber to clarify the matter. “We disapprove of what has apparently taken place at the staff level,” he fumed. The SPD announced its intention to delay the implementation of EU decisions in the Bundestag. Its economic policy spokesperson, Sebastian Roloff, declared that they would “use all available means to delay and weaken, as much as possible, decisions that were made at the EU level with a majority vote from the far-right factions.”

The AfD leadership, however, expressed its delight. Co-chair Alice Weidel said it was “a positive development that the firewall has fallen in the European Parliament.” Her colleague Tino Chrupalla pointed to the Eastern European representatives in the EPP: “If good proposals are also put forward by other groups – and that is precisely what democracy is about – why shouldn’t we approve them?”

Left Struggling to Form Voting Blocks

To understand the significance, one must first recall the broader political terrain post-2024 European Parliament elections. Those polls delivered a fragmented chamber: the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) remained the largest group, but right-wing forces consolidated gains. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), anchored by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, the Patriots for Europe (PfE) featuring France’s Rassemblement National, and the newer Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN)—which absorbed the AfD after its expulsion from the Identity and Democracy group—collectively amplified calls for tighter migration controls.

Traditional left-leaning and centrist alliances struggled to form blocking majorities on contentious files. The March 2026 LIBE Committee vote on the Return Regulation meanwhile, secured through that WhatsApp coordination involving EPP’s François-Xavier Bellamy, ECR’s Weimers, PfE’s Ehlers, and AfD’s Mary Khan, passed with 41 votes in favor. It proposed practical tools: external “return hubs” for processing rejected asylum claims, extended detention periods up to 24 months (with no upper limit for security threats), mutual recognition of return decisions across member states, and harsher penalties for non-compliance. The plenary endorsement on March 26 underscored a new consensus: returns must move from paper to practice.

National elections in 2025 and the lead-up to 2026 have amplified these signals.

As Weimers noted, “The firewall must not prevent the EU from passing urgently needed legislation.” In Brussels, where no single national veto dominates and majorities are fluid, the AfD’s ESN MEPs are treated as legitimate partners on dossiers where interests align.

Other Key National Ballots

Consider the packed electoral calendar: Slovenia held parliamentary elections on March 22, 2026, just days before the EP plenary vote. Hungary follows closely with its high-stakes parliamentary contest expected around April 12. Sweden’s general election is slated for September 13, 2026, with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-of-center government—including support from the Sweden Democrats (Weimers’ own party)—facing scrutiny over security and integration. Denmark eyes polls in October or November, Latvia by early October, and Bulgaria potentially in November amid ongoing instability.

In Hungary, the April vote carries outsized weight for EU-wide dynamics. Orbán has positioned himself as a bulwark against what he calls “mass migration” and Brussels overreach. A strong Fidesz performance would reinforce the right-wing bloc in the Council.

Similarly, the Sweden Democrats, once ostracized, now wield influence in government support agreements. If Swedish voters reward the incumbents’ tougher migration line, it will validate the Brussels model of cross-right coordination.

Denmark’s Social Democrats under Mette Frederiksen have long adopted restrictive migration policies to blunt right-wing challengers, polling competitively against a fragmented field.

France conducted municipal elections on March 15 and 22, providing an early gauge of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition against Marine Le Pen’s RN (housed in PfE). These local races often preview the 2027 presidential showdown, where migration and cost-of-living issues dominate. Spain’s regional votes—in Aragon (February), Castilla y León (March), and Andalusia (June)—test Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE against the center-right PP, with the right-wing Vox potentially influencing outcomes. Italy, under Meloni’s ECR-aligned government, faces no national vote but watches municipal cycles closely.

Germany itself has a busy state election slate reinforcing the national picture. Baden-Württemberg and Hesse voted in early March 2026, with further contests in Saxony-Anhalt (September 6), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin (September 20), and others later in the year.

Migration as a Litmus Test

What unites these disparate polls is a common thread: migration policy as a litmus test. The EU Return Regulation’s key provisions—external hubs, prolonged detention, and sanctions—address long-standing implementation gaps. Return rates have lagged despite Dublin reforms and border agency expansions, fueling voter discontent.

This dynamic will intensify through 2026. Right-wing groups, though divided among ECR, PfE, and ESN, increasingly find common ground on sovereignty issues, as the WhatsApp precedent shows.