Iran’s AD a Wounded Lion – Still Manages to Shoot Down Enemy Planes

Warnings are now emerging that China could enter the picture — supplying Iran with even more advanced air defense (AD) systems.

An Azarakhsh photographed by Hossein Zohrevand for TAS

Iran had, on paper, one of the world’s strongest air defenses, with hundreds of short-, medium-, and long-range systems. Yet Israel was able to destroy much of that capability during the 12-Day War of 2025. When the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, its air defenses were already severely decimated. Since then, the country has been bombed more than 14,000 times. Despite this, Iran still manages to shoot down a few American fighter jets and several advanced drones — at a stage of the war where both Israel and the US claim total air supremacy.

Iran’s air defense before the war

Before 2025, Iran had a layered air defense combining domestic and foreign systems, primarily from Russia, along with older American equipment inherited from the Shah’s era.

For short-range defense, Iran had over 400 Ya Zahra-3 systems and their mobile variant, the Herz-9, with a range of 10 kilometers against low-flying targets. These were supplemented by around 30 Russian Tor systems with a range of 10–15 kilometers and attack altitudes up to 5 kilometers. A newer system, the Azarakhsh — which began production in 2024 — represents a shift toward mobile defense structures capable of rapid relocation, with a stated altitude reach of 6.5 kilometers.

For medium-range defense, Iran fielded an extensive network of around 500 upgraded Hawk systems (MIM-23 and the domestically upgraded Mersad variant), with ranges of 30–45 kilometers and maximum altitudes of 15–20 kilometers. Iran also possessed 50 Russian 2K12 Kub systems, battle-tested in Ukraine, with a range of around 30 kilometers. More advanced systems included the Khordad-3, which famously shot down a US MQ-4 drone in 2019, with stated ranges of 50–75 kilometers.

The Ya Zahra-3 is an Iranian copy of the Chinese HQ-7, which is itself a further development of the French Crotale missile. It has a range of 10 kilometers against low-flying targets and uses a radio link to control the missile even in a strong jamming environment. Photo: militaryforum.net

Long-range air defense formed Iran’s strategic shield. Before the 12-Day War, Iran operated 10 upgraded Russian S-200s, around 50 Sayyad-2 and -3 systems, and approximately 45 Talaash and Bavar-373 systems — all with ranges of 200–350 kilometers and the ability to engage multiple targets at altitudes up to 30–40 kilometers at speeds of Mach 5 or more.

Mersad med_Shahin robot. Photo: Mehr News Agency

Khordad-3 during a demonstration in Tehran. This particular unit shot down one of the US’s most advanced drones, an MQ-4, in 2019. There is a painted symbol visible on the side of the vehicle marking the shootdown. Photo: MojNews

An MQ-4C Triton was possibly shot down before the war began. Photo: US Department of War

Iran’s most advanced domestic system, the Arman, was launched in early 2024. It can track six targets simultaneously, engage them at up to 120 kilometers, and its missiles fly at Mach 7–9, designed to target both ballistic missiles and aircraft. Iran also operated four Russian-made S-300PMU2 systems with a range of around 200 kilometers.

The Khordad-15 is an Iranian-developed air defense system that uses a radar that illuminates the target and steers the missile towards it. The range is approximately 200 kilometers and the system is also said to be able to detect stealth targets at a distance of up to 85 kilometers and combat them from 45 kilometers. It entered service in 2019. Photo: Army Recognition

Arman is Iran’s most advanced domestically produced air defense system. It can track six different targets simultaneously and engage them at a distance of up to 120 kilometers and an altitude of 27 kilometers. It entered service in February 2024. Photo: IRNA

The flaws in the shield

Despite this layered capability, serious shortcomings existed. During Israel’s surprise attack at the start of the 12-Day War in June 2025, extensive ground-level preparation using agents and saboteurs — coordinated to create a cascade effect — knocked out key Iranian radar systems, cut power to critical installations, and disabled at least one S-300 radar. By simultaneously attacking the command structure and electronically disrupting communications, large gaps were torn in the overlapping defense network. Around 300 initial strikes in barely 10 minutes opened the way for the next twelve days to become, in effect, an easy operation for Israeli jets.

The precise extent of the damage remains unclear, but Israel claims to have completely destroyed all S-300 systems and virtually all accessible long-range defenses. Analysts at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) estimate that 50–75 percent of Iran’s medium-range and 75–85 percent of its long-range air defenses were knocked out. The majority of destroyed systems were in western Iran, while some short- and medium-range systems remain in the east — but moving them carries the risk of triggering expanded US strikes on those areas.

Even a wounded lion can bite

Despite these losses, Iran is not completely defenseless. Systems hidden in “missile cities” — massive underground bunker complexes protected by hundreds of meters of bedrock — have managed to damage and shoot down a handful of American aircraft. That represents more losses than the US has experienced in any war since the Gulf War of 1990–91, when it lost 23 aircraft.

The majority of US aircraft shot down have been F-15E models. Most of these, somewhat ironically, were downed by mistake by Kuwait on March 2, when a Kuwaiti pilot mistook the allied US planes for Iranian attackers and scored hits that downed three aircraft. On March 12, a KC-135 Stratotanker crashed in Iraq, killing its six-man crew; another aircraft was seriously damaged but landed in Israel. An Iranian-linked Iraqi militia claimed responsibility for a portable missile attack, while the US attributed it to a mid-air collision.

The most significant episode came on April 3, when an F-15E was shot down, prompting a large American rescue operation inside Iran. Later that day, an A-10 Thunderbolt II was shot down during those rescue efforts. At least four helicopters and two C-130 transport planes were subsequently destroyed, with two more helicopters damaged but able to return to base. The US stated the C-130s were deliberately destroyed by their own troops after becoming stuck in sand, but analysts note the wreckage shows signs of crash landings, and photos circulating online appear to show a body inside one aircraft.

The US lost two C130 transport planes and at least five helicopters in the operation near Isfahan. Formally, it was a rescue operation to rescue one of the pilots from a downed F-15E (the other was already safe). However, analysts point out that the location of the forward base near the Isfahan nuclear research facility and the operation of hundreds of elite soldiers with helicopters transported on board the planes, rather indicate that they wanted to secure Iran’s highly enriched uranium. If such a raid was successful, it would save face for Trump and mean a way out of the war for the US. Instead, American soldiers ended up in a firefight and were eventually forced to abort the operation. The pilot is said to have been rescued, but has not been shown on camera. Officially, not a single American soldier was killed and the equipment was deliberately destroyed because the planes got stuck in loose sand, but analysts point out that the wreckage bears traces of having crashed or made an emergency landing. There are also photos circulating of a dead body inside one of the planes, but this is unconfirmed. Photo: X

Military analysts largely conclude the operation’s true objective was to seize Iran’s highly enriched uranium stored at Isfahan — just 30 kilometers from where the Americans established their forward base. They note that several hundred commandos far exceeds what a rescue operation would require, but aligns with the force needed to secure a military facility. The raid appears to have been aborted, and its outcome remains disputed.

Additional US air losses include up to 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones, according to CBS News sources within the US administration — a notable achievement given that these drones typically operate at very high altitudes. The US also lost an MQ-4C Triton on April 9, which reported critical damage at around 10,000 meters over the Strait of Hormuz. Whether it was shot down or disabled via electronic jamming — a method Iran has previously used — remains unconfirmed.

On top of air losses, roughly half a dozen US aircraft have been hit by ballistic missiles and drones while parked at regional bases, including an AWACS E-3 reconnaissance aircraft — of which the US operates only 25–27 in total.

The F-35 incident

Perhaps the most telling episode occurred on March 19, when a US F-35 — the most advanced stealth fighter jet in the American arsenal — was struck by an anti-aircraft missile and forced to make an emergency landing at a regional base, confirmed by the US. This is significant because the F-35 is marketed on its stealth technology, which is supposed to make it extremely difficult for enemy radar to identify and lock on to.

An F-35A Lightning II takes off from a US base on March 14, during the ongoing war with Iran. Photo: US Air Force

Iran has turned this weakness into a strength. While stealth technology reduces radar detectability, it cannot eliminate the aircraft’s physical and thermal presence. Iran has developed complementary passive infrared-based tracking technology — which detects heat signatures rather than emitting radar signals. Unlike radar, passive systems emit nothing that can be detected or targeted by anti-radiation missiles, making them far harder to suppress.

Iran’s remaining capabilities

What Iran retains is primarily an asymmetric air defense capability. The number of medium- and potentially long-range systems hidden in caves and underground facilities is unclear. What Iran does have in abundance are man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS). Estimates put the number at between 4,500 and 6,000 units. These include the Russian-made 9K333 Verba and the Misagh-3, an Iranian variant of the Chinese QW-18, itself derived from the Russian 9K38 Igla-1.

The Misagh-3 is an Iranian shoulder-fired, infrared-seeking, air defense missile. It has a range of approximately 5–6 kilometers and thousands are estimated to be spread across Iran, posing a constant threat to low-flying aerial targets, such as attack helicopters. It is an Iranian variant of the Chinese QW-18, which in turn is a variant of the Russian 9K38 Igla-1. Photo: Tasnim News

The 9K333 Verba is used here by a Russian soldier during an exercise in Tajikistan. It has a seeker with three channels: ultraviolet, near-infrared, mid-infrared, and Iran has large quantities of this system. Photo: Mil.ru

Though MANPADS have a short range of only 5–6 kilometers, their sheer numbers and wide distribution pose a constant threat to low-flying aircraft, drones, and helicopters. Iran’s mountainous terrain — with high peaks and deep valleys — amplifies this threat. Defenders can use the radar shadow created by mountains both as cover and to extend the effective operational range of these systems. This is particularly relevant along Iran’s coastline and around the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.

Remains of the tail rudder of the F15E that was shot down over Iran and which was the start of a comprehensive American operation inside Iran. Photo: IRNA

It is worth noting that Trump himself stated the F-15C that was shot down was hit by “a portable air defense system,” while Iran claimed it was a new, unspecified system.

China: the joker in the game

With its air defense network severely degraded, Iran urgently needs to rebuild regardless of how ceasefire negotiations develop. Israel has openly stated it will not stop until “the regime is wiped out” and has bombed factories producing domestic air defense systems. Russia, preoccupied with its own material losses in Ukraine, is less willing to help.

The country that could change this equation is China, which has both the production capacity and a deep strategic interest in preventing Iran’s collapse. China already purchases around 90 percent of Iranian oil and is one of the few nations still receiving Iranian energy supplies despite a US blockade. While China wants to avoid openly provoking Washington, it has strong incentives to arm Iran — including the opportunity to test its weapons systems against the US military ahead of any future superpower confrontation.

Since 2025, China has increasingly sold weapons to Iran, while officially denying supplies during the active war. However, multiple Western outlets, citing intelligence sources, report that China is planning to deliver advanced air defense systems via third-party countries. According to an intelligence report seen by Reuters, this includes 1,600 MANPADS — likely variants of the FN-6 with upgraded infrared seekers and a range of around 6 kilometers.

More significantly, speculation centers on the Hong Qi-9 (HQ-9), an export-grade system with a range of around 200 kilometers and engagement altitudes up to 30 kilometers. Based on the Russian S-300 with Chinese upgrades, it is considered highly capable, with a claimed accuracy rate of 90 percent against advanced fighter jets. A delivery of the HQ-9 would represent a far greater boost to Iranian air defense than even the four S-300s Iran previously purchased from Russia.

The threat is being taken seriously at the highest levels. Donald Trump has warned China directly: “If China does it, China will have very big problems.” In reality, if such deliveries occur, it is more likely to mean very big problems for the US and Israel.

Iranian fighter jets were spotted over Iran on April 15. They were escorting Pakistan’s top commander Asim Munir as his delegation arrived in Tehran to discuss further peace talks. The aircraft on the left is an F4 Phantom donated by the US when the Shah still ruled Iran, and the one on the right is a much more modern Russian-built MiG-29. This suggests that Iran may still have an ace up its sleeve, despite Trump’s claims that Iran’s air force and air defenses have been completely wiped out. Stills: Telegram

Iran has proven more resilient than its enemies anticipated. Every time Trump has declared victory, it has been premature. Even a wounded lion, as this war is demonstrating, can still bite.

The Chinese HQ-9 is an upgrade of the Russian S-300. It can engage targets at distances of up to about 200 kilometers and at altitudes of 30 kilometers and is considered very capable. Rumors abound that China wants to sell this system to Iran, which Donald Trump has strongly warned against. However, the sale could take place via a third country. Photo: Missile Defence Advocacy