Kiev Loses Access to the Sea

While Ukrainian attacks hit refineries, oil depots, ships of the Russian shadow fleet, as well as logistics centers of Russia’s largest online retailer, the expected effect failed to materialize. However, increasing pressure from within its own population has prompted the Kremlin to gradually abandon its previous restraint.

It appears that Russia’s war aims are no longer limited to controlling the predominantly Russian-populated areas of the Donbas and establishing a buffer zone. Rather, the military focus is increasingly directed against Ukraine’s economic and infrastructural foundations. East of the Dnieper River, gas stations, fuel transports, and supply depots are being systematically destroyed. After largely disabling Ukrainian air defenses, Russia is now increasingly targeting logistic infrastructure.

The most consequential development of the past few weeks is the situation at the Ukrainian seaports. Ukraine has effectively become a landlocked country. Before the war began, around 90 percent of grain exports and about 70 percent of all goods traffic were handled via the ports on the Black Sea and in the Danube Delta.

In recent months, Russia has abandoned the agreements of autumn 2022 and established a de facto blockade around the remaining Black Sea ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny, as well as the Danube ports of Izmail, Reni, and Ust-Dunaisk. Cargo ships can barely reach these ports anymore, arms shipments have been sunk, and at the same time, the port infrastructure in the Odessa area has been severely damaged by missile attacks.

This has significant military and economic consequences for Ukraine. Weapons, ammunition, and other supplies now have to be imported almost exclusively by land, which reduces transport capacity and speed.

Exports are also suffering considerably. Due to the sheer volume of the country’s agricultural products, only a small portion can be exported by rail or truck. The vast majority relies on sea transport. Without functioning ports, Kiev lacks its most important export corridor for grain and other bulk goods.

Furthermore, China recently dealt a significant blow to Ukraine’s drone armament by banning the export of numerous “dual-use” goods—items that can be used in both military and civilian sectors. Sooner rather than later, Ukrainian drone production is likely to decline considerably as a result. Observers agree that, despite some successes in the drone war, Ukraine’s overall situation has unfortunately deteriorated drastically.