Will Coalition of Ukraine Supporters Crumble without Macron?

According to a report in the British newspaper The Telegraph, Western strategists are particularly concerned about France – after French President Emmanuel Macron leaves office, there is a risk that a future president might not support France’s current approach to Ukraine, thus weakening the coalition led by Great Britain and France.

The pro-Ukraine alliance currently comprises around 30 states, mostly NATO members. For more than a year, it has been working on plans for a possible deployment of international troops in Ukraine following a ceasefire and is coordinating the dwindling military aid to Kiev.

According to the Telegraph, the new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is seen as a guarantor of continuity. France, on the other hand, is causing uncertainty, as Macron is constitutionally obligated to step down after the upcoming presidential election.

The newspaper names Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon as promising successors. Both are critical of NATO and hold positions on the Ukraine issue that deviate from the current course. Le Pen announced plans to withdraw France from NATO’s military command, lift sanctions against Russia, and press for peace negotiations. Mélenchon advocates for France’s complete withdrawal from NATO.

A Western government official told the Telegraph that a victory for either of these candidates would be “a major problem” for NATO. According to another source, British authorities are already examining potential consequences for security cooperation with Paris, particularly regarding the exchange of intelligence.

Additional uncertainty arises from political developments in other European countries. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also under considerable pressure, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk faces growing domestic opposition, not to mention countries like Slovakia, which generally reject any support for Ukraine.