Firewall Imposed by Mainstream German Parties Against AfD Crumbles

The media and established political parties are in shock: because what was possible in Saxony-Anhalt could be repeated in future elections – the elections for the Berlin House of Representatives and the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state parliament are already scheduled for September 20.

Wolfgang Kubicki, federal chairman of the FDP, which only garnered 2.1 percent of the vote, wrote on X: “This is not the result we had hoped for.” The party had failed to “absorb the justified disappointment with the CDU.” The result, he said, was a reckoning “especially with the policies of the federal government.”

Former Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Peter Altmaier (CDU) called it a “devastating defeat” and described the result as “worse than all fears.” Minister of the Chancellery Nina Warken (CDU) declared on ZDF: “This result is a watershed moment.” She added that it was a “very difficult result” for the Federal Government.

Hysteria at Home, Not Abroad

Charlotte Knobloch, chairwoman of the Jewish Community of Munich and Upper Bavaria, reacted almost hysterically. “On days like this, it’s hard for me to recognize my homeland anymore. That right-wing extremists could win elections in Germany again in this way is something I couldn’t have imagined in my worst nightmares,” said the 93-year-old.

While domestic commentators are still reeling from the shock, foreign observers are more reserved and focusing more on the political consequences of the AfD’s surge. CNN speaks of a “major step forward” for the AfD on its path to national power and a setback for the coalition under Friedrich Merz. The result is “another blow to Merz’s authority,” whose popularity has declined.

The British BBC calls AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund a “charismatic candidate” and points to the historical dimension of a potential participation in government: since the Second World War, no “far-right” party has controlled a German state. The Guardian described the election as “the biggest test yet for Merz” and expects “enormous pressure” on the Chancellor should the AfD win. The Daily Mail, in turn, spoke of an election victory that will “shake” Germany and refers to Germany’s handling of its past.

Meanwhile, tech billionaire Elon Musk, a long-time sympathizer of the AfD, signaled his clear support – he immediately congratulated the AfD on their victory in Saxony-Anhalt. “Well done!” he wrote on his online platform X, commenting on a post by AfD leader Alice Weidel, in which she congratulated lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund. Siegmund thanked Musk and added in English: “If we assume responsibility here, I would very much welcome the opportunity for strong and constructive cooperation. Germany would then once again be a location worth investing in. Best regards from Saxony-Anhalt!”

Former US Ambassador to Berlin Richard Grenell, who, like Musk, maintains close ties to US President Donald Trump, also congratulated the AfD on X. “A great victory and a new day in Germany,” Grenell wrote.

Mainstream Crumbling

In Saxony-Anhalt, the beginnings of the CDU’s decline were already evident on election night. The party lost a substantial 25 percent of the vote on Sunday, while the AfD improved its standing by 16 percent compared to the election five years ago. Member of Parliament Sepp Müller and the Young Union of Saxony-Anhalt believe the mandate to form a new state government now clearly lies with the AfD. The CDU, therefore, must go into opposition.

Müller told a ZDF reporter on election night: “One thing is also clear, we have no mandate to form a government. That now lies with the AfD.” When asked how things should proceed, Müller said: “Sven Schulze will remain in office as caretaker minister-president for the time being.”

Whether this can be enforced is questionable. The state executive committee of the Young Union, in a unanimously adopted resolution, demanded the resignation of Schulze and the entire CDU state leadership. The voters had “delivered an unequivocal verdict,” and a “business as usual” approach was no longer possible. The CDU was at a “turning point.” The youth organization placed the mandate to form a government “undoubtedly with the AfD.”

The Young Union is also calling for greater political freedom of movement for the CDU’s future direction. The party should not permanently commit to a specific coalition partner.

It’s clear: the CDU/CSU bloc is now shifting. Several weeks ago, members of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Magdeburg state parliament announced their intention to leave the group and join forces with the AfD should the AfD win. Observers predict that these are the final days of the “firewall” imposed by Chancellor Merz.

Wagenknecht Holds the Key

BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht’s party) is positioning itself in a way that could indirectly help AfD. The AfD won clearly with 43.8% and 39 of 83 seats but fell three seats short of a majority. BSW came in with 5.3% and five seats.

Wagenknecht and BSW have spent months attacking the “Brandmauer” (the firewall against AfD) as undemocratic “idiocy.” Their stated goal is to replace CDU Minister President Sven Schulze with a non-partisan/independent Minister President who governs with changing majorities including AfD. They have said they will not vote for either Schulze or AfD’s Ulrich Siegmund. If the other parties reject their independent-candidate model, BSW will abstain in the third round of the Minister President election.

If BSW’s five members abstain and the other non-AfD parties (39 seats) all vote no, it is a 39–39 tie. Even one defection, absence, or extra abstention from the anti-AfD camp could let Siegmund through. BSW co-chair Amira Mohamed Ali and state lead Thomas Schulze repeated after the election that they will talk to everyone (including AfD), will not join a “Brandmauer coalition,” and will abstain in a third round.