Did Postal Voting Cost the AfD its Absolute Majority?

There is a plausible reason for this assumption: there are striking, but consistent, differences between in-person and postal voting. The AfD, which emerged as the clear winner with almost 44 percent of the vote, achieved 51.2 percent of the votes cast in person, but only 24.27 percent of the postal votes. The CDU shows almost the opposite ratio: 14.55 percent at the polling station compared to 24.30 percent of the postal votes. A total of 1,315,315 valid votes were counted, including 361,787 postal votes. This means that 27.51 percent of all valid votes were cast by postal ballot.

The results for the other parties also shifted in a peculiar but significant way between the two voting methods. The SPD achieved 13.53 percent in the postal vote and 7.69 percent at the polling station. For the Greens, the figures were 12.87 and 7.44 percent respectively, and for the Left Party, 11.03 percent compared to 7.62 percent. For the BSW, however, the difference was just under one percent. The AfD’s results showed the greatest discrepancy: a full 26.93 percent difference between the polling station and postal votes.

In some polling districts, the difference is even greater. In Mertendorf, the AfD received 63.2 percent of the votes cast at the polling stations, but only 24.5 percent of the postal votes. In Hedersleben, 62.9 percent of the votes cast at the polling stations were compared to 26.4 percent by mail. In Obhausen, the ratio was 60.5 to 24.8 percent, and in Meineweh, 63.0 to 27.9 percent. A significant shift also occurred in a postal voting district in Magdeburg: only 5.5 percent for the AfD, while its share in the corresponding polling district was 41.5 percent. There were further notable discrepancies in other towns.

The shifts in favor of other parties also appear to be a widespread phenomenon. In Mertendorf, the CDU’s postal vote share is 18.8 percentage points higher than its result at the ballot box. For the SPD, it’s 7.3 percentage points, for the Greens 6.1, and for the BSW 3.6 percentage points. Similar shifts in favor of the CDU, Greens, and SPD are also evident in other towns.

Experts are hesitant to draw any conclusions from these figures alone. Postal voters can indeed differ from those who vote in person at the polling station on election day in terms of age, education, place of residence, and political preferences.

However, the differences between postal and in-person votes are enormous – and they significantly disadvantage a single party, the AfD, while all other parties benefit, in some cases enormously, from the postal votes. Above all, the consistent pattern is simply too striking to be explained by ordinary statistical variations.

Threats of Violence

Many readers still vividly remember the “storming” of the White House in January 2021, after Donald Trump lost the presidential election in November 2020 – allegedly due to voter fraud. The trials against the alleged “stormers” dragged on for years. Only after Trump’s re-election in 2025 were most of those convicted pardoned and released. Some of the protesters were harmed during the turbulent events of 2021. There was one death and at least a hundred injuries.

The far-left German action group “Widersetzen” (Resist) has already announced plans to block the parliament building with a major action on October 6, the day the new state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt convenes. Thousands of activists are expected to surround the parliament building “from all sides.” The background to this is the possible election of the AfD’s leading candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, as Minister-President.

The CDU and BSW are particularly targeted by left-wing extremists. The group “Widersetzen” (Resistance) declared that “the CDU and the BSW cannot be trusted to not elect an AfD state premier and thus incur historical guilt.” In that event, a spokesperson announces: “A democratic party that helps fascists into power is no longer a democratic party. Then its offices and party conferences will also become legitimate targets.”

The alliance justified the planned blockade by citing Siegmund’s participation in the so-called remigration meeting in Potsdam. “We will not allow him to be elected AfD Minister-President on October 6th without resistance,” they stated. A “fascist government” is illegitimate, regardless of “how many people vote for it.”

Following attacks on Apollo News reporters at the AfD party conference in Erfurt, the “Widersetzen” (Resistance) group had previously threatened the CDU and BSW. Spokesperson Noa Sander declared at the time: “To all parties, especially the CDU and BSW: this is our explicit warning! If you dare to help the fascists come to power, you will become our next target.”

During a left-wing strategy discussion in Hamburg, Sander also declared his commitment to “militant antifascism.” He argued that violent forms of action should be more “celebrated” in the future because antifascism was outdated in light of the AfD’s rise.

The police and domestic intelligence services apparently do not feel addressed by these announcements and the blatant threats of violence. Imagine if similar threats had been made by right-wing “activists” instead of left-wing ones.

A War to Stop the AfD?

Unlike left-wing hysterics in Germany, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico sees no reason to question democracy in Germany based on the AfD’s election result in Saxony-Anhalt. However, also unlike many German observers, he raises the possibility that the defeat of the established German parties could provide grounds for further escalation in relations with Russia.

On his Facebook page, Fico wrote after the election results from Saxony-Anhalt were announced: “I have only one wish: that the results of the state elections in Germany do not lead to a war with Russia being proposed as the only way to cover up the defeat of the governing parties.” He referred to historical experience as a reason for such a development and added: “Because, as they say: Germany doesn’t make small mistakes.”

According to Fico, the AfD’s strong showing must first and foremost be seen as a decision by the voters of a sovereign state. He views it primarily as an expression of dissatisfaction with the policies of the previous governing parties. Therefore, the result should not be portrayed as “the end of democracy or something terrible.”

Fico cited several policy areas that can contribute to election defeats. According to him, governing parties lose if they fail to combat illegal migration, pursue a belligerent policy, or support wars. He also mentioned European climate policy, whose impact on the competitiveness of governments is often insufficiently considered.