Trump Assembles a War Cabinet

Trump taps the neocon Marco Rubio for the nation’s top diplomat (LOL). Afghanistan die-hard and war profiteer Mike Waltz for National Security Advisor. War crimes apologist Pete Hegseth to head the Pentagon.

Rubio weaseled out of voting for the last Ukraine aid installment that he very much wanted, and knew would pass regardless, on a technicality that a Ukraine-Israel bill didn’t also address immigration. (Why should it?)

Hegseth is a specimen of that rare breed of American who remains an aggressive apologist for the Iraq War in a conventional Bushian mold. Not the least because he’s a creature of the Adelsons who was paid to be one. He ran the pro-war Vets for Freedom group for them, partnering with John McCain, Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham.

It was this gig that landed him with FOX, first as a reccuring pro-war guest and eventually a host, a position he down the line used to campaign successfully for a presidential pardon for the war criminal Eddie Gallagher — a textbook psychopath who turned even the rest of the SEALs against himself.

Waltz, a Virginia Military Institute-educated ex-Special Forces and GWOT veteran, may be the worst of the trio having advocated the US resign itself to a “multi-generational war” in Afghanistan and not having seen a war he hasn’t liked. The former aide to Cheney and Bush has advocated the US return to Afghanistan for a bombing campaign, and speaks about long-range missiles as leverage to “bring Russia to the table”. Waltz:

“If Putin is successful in Ukraine, he won’t stop until he involves NATO countries, and the United States will be treaty obligated to send American troops to fight. Doing nothing in the face of aggression is how World War III will eventually start.” 

I’d like you to do the following mental exercise here. Think who would be the Russian counterparts to these men? It’s not Lavrov and Belousov.

This is a war cabinet. A cabinet that will be hawkish on Israel-Palestine, Iran, China, Venezuela, but will make a single exception for Russia-Ukraine? Of course not. It’ll be pro-war on that too.

Trump has said he favors a quick peace in Ukraine, so what? That’s a sentiment, not a policy. Everyone favors peace in principle. Question is what do you favor peace over and is that enough?

Putin is waging a war to redefine the status of Ukraine, to impose costs on Kiev for going down the path of what he deems “the anti-Russia project” and coercing it into a more accommodationist posture. (Which is a braindead way of going about things, but it is what it is.)

In an ideal world, Trump wants peace on day one. We’re not in Trump’s ideal world, so the real question is does Trump want peace badly enough that he is willing to 1st: — let Ukraine slip from the Empire’s clutches, and 2nd: — to face the media heat for doing so? To ask is to answer.

A person more insecure about perceived weakness or defeat than Donald Trump would be difficult to find. A character flaw that botched the Syria pullout, the North Korea deal, and prolonged the Afghanistan war.

Indeed, Trump claims that with him around Putin wouldn’t have dared go on the offensive. The billions in Ukraine aid flow to the US military-industrial complex that he has been a generous patron of. And the formulas floated by Kellogg, Vance, and Waltz envisage a settlement that preserves most of Ukraine for DC, but threaten Putin with more aid for Kiev, and sometimes long-range strike, if he doesn’t take it.

What will decide when the war ends, isn’t the White House, but how much Ukraine has left in the tank — and how much Russia has left by then will decide the precise terms.

The biggest effect of the transition on the war is that as a newcomer Team Trump is less jaded, thinks it knows better, and is more liable to give different experiments a go, including goofy or dangerous ones. (What is the equivalent of murdering Soleimani on an official state visit to a third country in the context of Russia-Ukraine?)

The ray of hope for Russia doesn’t lie in the dovishness of the Trump admin but its hawkishness. The US support for Israel in Gaza over the last year has robbed DC of any moral high ground, made Russia look good by comparison, and has divided American attention.

On a similar note, if the Empire under Trump starts adventuring vs Venezuela or Iran before wrapping up Ukraine, Russia will benefit.

Same if it moves against China too aggressively. Presently Beijing sees Moscow’s war as a nuisance that getting close to could speed up the inevitable US tech sanctions before China is ready for them. But if China finds itself under an avalanche of embargos anyway that calculation may change.

Mild, practically invisible moves by China, like more effective export controls on components for Ukraine’s drone program, taking a more active interest resolving Russia’s cross-border payment woes, or quietly backfilling North Korea’s ammo stockpiles could have a significant effect.

In other words, having overreached with the SMO, Moscow is left hoping DC may commit a similar unforced error.

Meanwhile, sitting in one of Russia’s penal colonies Igor Strelkov is hoping for something a little different — that having declined a couple of their proposals Team Trump will put so much heat on Putin he’ll have no choice but switch Russia to full-on war.

On a closing note, if you’re in the market for soap, Pete Hegseth, has an offer for you:

How about some “gunpowder soap — the smell of American firepower”?

Tulsi Gabbard sees a radical reversal of fortunes (not uncommon in banana republics), going from being followed around in airports and on flights by the national security state to theoretically the nation’s chief spook.

As the Director of National Intelligence her main power lies in preparing the President’s Daily Brief drawing on information from all the intelligence agencies. In other words, she’s theoretically the gatekeeper to Trump for the seventeen intelligence agencies to pass.

Interesting role, and she’ll also sit on the National Security Council, but she will be outnumbered.

Meanwhile, the COVID heroine Kristi Noem is now a cop? Unfortunate.