Russia Hits Ukraine With New Missile With Multiple Warheads

Last night Russia missile-bombed the old Yuzhmash Soviet missile plant in Dnipro, Ukraine. The missile was fired from Volgograd, 800 kilometers away, and delivered multiple warheads. Both of these aspects are novel. We’ve never seen such a weapon used in this war before, which raises the question of what it was.

Until 2019 Russia was limited by the INF treaty which banned ground-launched missiles in the 500-5500 kilometer range. As a consequence, Russia has many Iskanders with ranges up to 500 km and ICBMs with a range over 5500 km, but we don’t know of a Russian missile with an 800 km range.

Ukraine says the weapon was an ICBM the Russians fired on a low trajectory, but the US disagrees. I think in this case the Americans with their satellites are in a better position to judge. Also, the ICBM claim mostly centers on it being the RS-26 “Rubezh” missile, but that program was mothballed in 2018.

If it wasn’t an ICBM that leaves two options. One is that since 2019 Russia has raced to develop an medium-range ballistic missile, or that it has imported them from abroad.

Iran has medium-range missiles that deliver multiple warheads, and has indeed just recently used them against Israel. However, the West only accuses Iran of providing Russia with the very short-range Fath 360 missile, not of anything capable of making the distance from Kaputsin Yar to Dnipro. Also Iran is perhaps not in the best position to be sharing its stockpile of weapons capable of reaching Israel with another power presently.

This leaves a previously unknown domestic medium-range missile as perhaps the likeliest option.

Moscow did say that the expansion of ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes into western Russia would be answered with the use of a new weapon not yet seen in this war, and now it has delivered.

Hurling an ICBM on a low trajectory at a defense plant in eastern Ukraine is quite bombastic, but it isn’t cost-effective or sustainable. It’s a one-off, a circus shot that you won’t be doing much of.

A revelation that you have access to a new type of Iranian missile would be a lot more significant for the war’s trajectory. However as a show of force, saber-rattling with imported products doesn’t exactly scream strength for a great power.

On the other hand, a demonstration that five years since the INF death has been enough time to develop and field medium-range ballistic missiles — weapons that would be perfect for striking NATO in Europe in a cost-effective way — would be an eyebrow-raiser with considerable substance.

However, if it is domestic and new, then the question is if it already exists in quantities that can have a large effect on the present campaign in Ukraine and the answer is probably no.

-UPDATE: Just after publishing Putin went on TV for a national address and revealed the weapon was indeed a previously undisclosed medium-range ballistic missile “Oreshnik”.