Lebanon Deal Serves the Interests of Netanyahu, Who Is Showing No Sign of Ending Gaza War

The moment most of the journalists in media outlets supportive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began singing the praises of the emerging agreement with Lebanon this week, it was clear that the government wants a cease-fire on the northern front. As usual, the mouthpieces revealed the direction of the decisions.

Some bureaucratic hurdles must still be cleared, first and foremost the convening of the security cabinet on Tuesday. Israel is also waiting for some final clarifications from the American mediators. Nevertheless, there’s a reasonable chance that the agreement will be signed in the next few days.

Barring any last-minute changes, the optimism the Biden administration has been voicing for months finally appears close to being justified. After almost 14 months of fighting, Israel and Hezbollah are on the verge of ending their clashes. And no less important, the Gaza Strip will remain virtually alone as the last major front once Hezbollah is no longer actively supporting Hamas.

This is where another dispute is likely to erupt in Israel, between those who are demanding total victory over Hamas and effectively support a never-ending war in Gaza and those who will rightly say that if Israel ended the war in the north without completely defeating the stronger enemy, it can certainly afford to reach an agreement in Gaza as well. Moreover, such an agreement could save the lives of around half the hostages, those who are thought to still be alive.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was careful to distance himself from any whiff of defeatism. He announced on Monday that he advised Netanyahu to continue the war in the north until the enemy is utterly defeated. But even Ben-Gvir isn’t threatening to quit the government if the agreement is signed. As in the first hostage deal, which was reached exactly a year ago, he is shirking responsibility for the results, but without giving up his job.

The Lebanon agreement is expected to win sweeping support in the security cabinet. As for public support, the picture is more complicated. Certainly, residents of the northern border, many of whom vote for rightist parties, may fear that what has been done in Lebanon isn’t enough to eliminate the threat from Hezbollah.

But rather than listening to the dictated talking points of the various mouthpieces, it’s wiser to listen to Brig. Gen. (res.) Effi Eitam, one of Netanyahu’s unofficial advisers. In an interview with Kan radio on Monday, Eitam described the emerging agreement as “a temporary lull for 60 days,” after which we’ll have to see what happens.

He was referring to the first stage of the agreement. During that time, the Israel Defense Forces is supposed to withdraw from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is supposed to leave the area south of the Litani River and the Lebanese army is supposed to gradually enter that area.

Eitam said that Netanyahu wants a cease-fire now mainly due to relations with the Americans. The Biden administration, he said, has essentially imposed a partial arms embargo on Israel. It is also considering not vetoing anti-Israel resolutions in the UN Security Council.

According to Eitam, Israel therefore needs to reduce the war’s risks, avoid unnecessary clashes with the outgoing U.S. president and wait for President-elect Donald Trump to take office on January 20.

Interestingly, however, he declined to recommend that residents of the north return home once the agreement is signed. He advised them to wait a few months, until the picture becomes clearer, and didn’t rule out the possibility that after Trump is sworn in, the war might resume. He said it would take around two years to deal Hezbollah a decisive blow.

In contrast, several senior defense officials told Haaretz over the last few days that there’s a good chance the war in the north won’t resume. In their view, Hezbollah and Iran will use the next few years to try to rebuild Hezbollah’s military capabilities, which have been badly damaged, and will therefore try to avoid direct conflict with Israel.

As has been fairly clear for months now, the proposed final agreement will closely resemble UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War of 2006. But Israel hopes that this time, a real international effort will be made to enforce it.

One noteworthy improvement relates to the Americans’ role in implementing the agreement. Not only will Washington provide a side letter to Israel recognizing its right to attack Lebanon if Hezbollah violates the agreement, but the Americans will play a leading role in efforts to supervise and enforce its implementation. This seems like a good start, and it will also be backed by greater commitment from countries in western Europe.

Though Netanyahu and the army brass are at odds over many issues, both are interested in signing the agreement in Lebanon. The IDF General Staff is worried by the enormous burnout among soldiers in both the regular army and the reserves after such a long war. And Netanyahu – under pressure from the ultra-Orthodox parties, his partner in the governing coalition – is interested in passing legislation to enshrine ultra-Orthodox draft-dodging.

If the war in the north continues, the intolerable burden on the existing combat units will also continue, and it may even be necessary to call up more reservists. That would shine a spotlight on the injustice of legislation to exempt the ultra-Orthodox from serving and might well rouse the anti-government protests from their slumber. In contrast, a cease-fire in the north would gradually reduce the burden, and perhaps allow the army to move some of its regular units to the south.

There, the prime minister so far shows no signs of seeking a cease-fire and a hostage deal. Instead, he is interested in continuing the long war against Hamas.

Source: Haaretz