The preliminary official final result for the German federal election in 2021. SWR Screenshot
Close race for the Bundestag: Despite shift to the left, no majority for leftists
According to exit polls, the race to succeed Chancellor Merkel in Germany seemed completely open until the very end. The Union of Armin Laschet competed in a neck and neck race with the Greens of Annalena Baerbock, not discounting the rise of Olaf Scholz's SPD, who had not been a serious contender for a long time. The FDP and the AfD battled for fourth place.
Published: September 27, 2021, 11:00 am
Possible coalitions are thus completely up in the air – because for the first time a three-person constellation will be necessary to form a government in Germany. Mathematically, the continuation of the “grand coalition” could be possible, but it is not considered realistic.
The two biggest election winners could actually be Merkel and the media: The current chancellor will see the formation of the government drag on meaning that she could possibly stay in office longer. The media, especially the public service, had a decisive influence on the outcome of this election with propaganda and framing.
The only thing that seemed clear beforehand was that the Bundestag, which had already expanded to 709 seats (currently 598), could grow even further. Due to the regional strength of the AfD in East Germany and the CSU in Bavaria as well as the tight black-red race at the top, many compensation mandates are likely to be the result of the polls.
SPD could be election winner – Merkel’s CDU crashes
The first official extrapolation was postponed because there were long queues in front of the polling stations in Berlin at the end of the voting day. Instead, a first forecast was made at 6 pm. Even after this, an election winner has not been pinpointed, as the SPD’s lead is quite small.
The SPD is currently at the top of the scoreboard with 26 percent for the first time in 19 years. The CDU/CSU have crashed to 24 percent. The Greens come in third place– with 14,5 percent, however, they remain far below their own expectations.
FDP beats the AfD
In fourth place is the liberal FDP with 12 percent, while the patriotic AfD received just under double digits with 10 percent. Its losses in the west are offset by a rise in votes in the eastern federal states, which, however, cannot compensate for an overall decline. According to the current state of affairs, the AfD obtained 20 direct mandates in the east to become the strongest party in Saxony and Thuringia.
In its election analysis, the AfD will register how voters in the west migrated to free voters, sometimes in droves, as well as the FDP. However, the AfD has more than quintupled the number of its direct mandates in the federal election in 2021. Four years ago it won three constituencies in Saxony, this year there were ten.
Whether the Left Party will get into the Bundestag again is not certain. In the first forecasts, it was exactly at the 5 percent hurdle. The other parties – including Free Voters and Die Basis – obtained 8,5 percent. In order to participate in the proportional distribution of mandates, 5 percent of the votes or three basic mandates are required nationwide.
No majority for leftist red-red-green
The distribution of mandates, due to the complicated German electoral system with 299 direct mandates and 299 list mandates plus equalization mandates, makes a forecast difficult. At present, a Kenya coalition (CDU / CSU-SPD-Greens), a Jamaica coalition (Union-Greens-FDP) or a traffic light coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) seem possible. A red-red-green coalition would probably not have a majority despite the shift to the left.
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