Spaniards told that ‘immigrants will pay their pensions’
Population decline in Spain in recent years as a result of low birth rates have triggered alarms. How will future pensions be paid if this trend continues?
Published: October 5, 2018, 4:04 pm
Demographic behavior of recent years has been strongly influenced by the economic crisis, but according to the Independent Authority of Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), far from losing population, Spain’s demography will actually continue to increase in the coming decades thanks to the increase in fertility and, especially, thanks to immigration.
Migrants will provide between 7 and 10 million more people in the country by 2050 .
The AIReF considers that the total population of Spain will increase by between 4 and 13 million people in 30 years, so that Spaniards will number between 51 and 60 million people in 2050. Immigration will be fundamental to maintain this population gain they say.
The Fiscal Authority considers that Spain will continue to attract migratory flows since it will have labour needs and higher incomes than that of the countries of origin – especially Latin America and Africa.
This will allow for about 270 000 immigrants per year to arrive in Spain. This means that immigration will contribute eight million inhabitants in the next three decades – estimates range between 7 and 10 million.
As a result, the weight of immigrants over the total population will increase dramatically. In the coming decades, the government’s demographers says it will be a “great help to the financing of pensions”.
According to its forecasts, Spain will maintain more than 30 million inhabitants of working age. Without an accelerated deterioration of the country’s economy, there is no reason to believe that the demand for labour will plummet in the coming decades as INE projects.
But this arrival of immigrants will not prevent the dependency rate in Spain from doubling, to around 50 percent in 2050: that is, one retiree for every two people of working age.
Spain is the country with the most generous pensions facing the biggest future crisis. AIReF considers that the forecasts of more pessimistic migratory flows – such as those of the INE and Eurostat – are wrong, since the aging of the population increase the demand for foreign labour.
Immigration will improve the economy and, in addition, help to pay pensions as the number of children per woman will change from the current environment of 1.4 children to the area of 2 children per woman by 2050.
AIReF also estimates that the birth rate will improve in the coming years, which will also help improve demographic forecasts. Spain is among the countries with the worst birth data, partly as a result of the severe economic crisis of the last decade.
The average age of Spaniards is 44 years old and in three provinces it is over 50 years old.
According to AIReF estimates, life expectancy at birth will increase to 87 years in 2050 from 83 years now, a forecast that is in line with those prepared by the INE and Eurostat.
But a Harvard University study has highlighted that the Islamisation of a country cannot be stopped once the Muslim population reaches 16 percent of the total population.
Islam expert, Nikoletta Incze, told Hungarian public television, that many so-called Muslim countries represent populations today which were converted by force. Incze is a researcher in the US at the Centre for the Study of Political Islam.
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