UK-based global bank Standard Chartered predict in a report published recently that Russia’s economic outlook looks rosy. Despite low oil prices coupled with Western sanctions, Russia’s economy will overtake Germany as the world’s fifth largest economy, possibly as early as next year.
In their projections for the global economy through 2030, StanChart maintains that China will overtake the US a the world’s largest economy. Explosive growth in Asia will result in Western economies losing their positions in the top rankings, with seven of the world’s ten largest economies in Asia by 2030.
The bank ranked the top five economies as China, the US, India, Japan, and Russia. Rounding out the top 10 countries will include Germany, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and the UK. The rankings were calculated by using PPP-inflected exchange rates and nominal GDP growth.
“By 2020, a majority of the world population will be classified as middle class. Asia will lead the increase in middle-class populations even as middle classes stagnate in the West,” according to Standard Chartered researcher Madhur Jha.
The World Bank’s economic outlook for Russia is also upbeat. They expect GDP growth to accelerate to 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021, compared with 1.6 percent last year, due to “relatively low and stable inflation and increased oil production”.
The IMF has also raised its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth higher for 2019 as a result of expected rising oil prices.
Germany’s economy is showing signs of fatigue: In 2018, it grew by 1.5 percent only, the slowest rate since 2013. Economic growth in Europe has been sluggish, adding to Germany’s woes. Data released during the fourth quarter raised fears that the country may have experienced a second straight quarterly contraction in Q4, raising anxieties about a recession.