Skip to Content

Dejuvenation is not solved by immigration. Photo credit: Micheile Henderson

The first study to calculate the real cost of immigration

Many Western countries have opened their borders without calculating the long-term effects of immigration. While it is touted to be a clever response to labour shortages, comprehensive and detailed analyses of the benefits and costs of immigration with country-of-origin comparisons have been sorely lacking.

Published: June 24, 2021, 11:04 am

    Read more

    In fact, most host countries would never dare to analyse the real costs because it is not deemed politically correct to distinguish between the worth of different cultures. Citizens are simply left to discover reality for themselves.

    Some general studies of immigrants’ contributions have concluded that young immigrants are net contributors to the economy, but they are often restricted to those coming specifically to work in the host country, and do not include students or asylum seekers.

    A typical example of such an undertaking is a 2014 OECD study.

    Researchers in the Netherlands studied official data from Statistics Netherlands and looked at outcomes over the long term, with results tabulated according to reasons for immigration, and by country of origin.

    In the study “The Borderless Welfare State” Jan van de Beek, Hans Roodenburg, Joop Hartog and Gerrit Kreffer, from the Amsterdam School of Economics, wanted to answer two questions:

    1) What are the fiscal costs and benefits of immigration by migration motive and by region of origin?
    2) To what extent can immigration provide a solution to the ageing population in the Netherlands?

    The authors studied detailed information from 2016 provided by Statistics Netherlands of 17 million Dutch residents, including about two million people with a first-generation migration background and almost two million people with a second-generation migration background. Of the 17 million Dutch inhabitants at the end of 2019, 13 percent were born abroad (first generation) and 11 percent were the off-spring of immigrants (second generation).

    In their in-depth analyses they found that the rapid pace of immigration into the Netherlands has greatly increased the Dutch population, but not the sustainability of the Dutch welfare state. Huge differences were noted by region of origin. On average, Western immigrants make a positive contribution of €25 000 while non-western immigrants have been a drain on public finances, costing at least €275 000 each. Asylum seekers are even more expensive, costing €475 000 per immigrant.

    Currently, per capita expenditures on immigrants are significantly higher than on Dutch inhabitants in terms of education, social security and social benefits. Also, immigrants pay fewer taxes resulting in a much lower net fiscal contribution. And the authors calculated the total cost of immigration for the next two decades if policy remains unchanged.

    By 2060 the higher birth-rates of immigrants and continued immigration will make them about 23 percent of the population.

    Immigration from Japan, North America, Oceania, the British Isles, Scandinavia, and Switzerland, in particular, has had a positive fiscal impact, averaging €200,000 per immigrant. Immigration from Central and Eastern EU-member states costs about €50 000 and immigrants from the former Yugoslavia and the former Soviet Union cost much more at €150 000.

    But it is immigration from non-Western regions which is hugely unfavourable for Dutch public finances. This applies especially to the areas of origin Caribbean, West-Asia, Turkey and North, Central and West Africa with net costs ranging from €200 000 to €400 000 per immigrant.

    Immigrants from Morocco, the Horn of Africa and Sudan clocked up a net cost of €550 000 to €600 000 per immigrant. Notably, the average Dutch citizen remains “budget-neutral” in the span of a lifetime.

    Clearly, the highest net costs are incurred from asylum migration from Africa. Since it also implies family re-unification, it has a considerable negative impact on the combined net contribution.

    Dunedin data showed that 20 percent of Dutch citizens need 80 percent of the financial support. Importing masses of low-skilled Africans to a welfare state only increases the number of the needy.

    While 40 percent of citizens get the remaining 20 percent, the top 40 percent contribute the most and receive nothing in return.

    For second-generation immigrants, the data showed that only a limited number of countries and regions are favourable. On a scale of 100 percent integration, some immigrants are even more successful than the native Dutch. These are mainly the Scandinavian countries and Switzerland (110 percent), Japan (128 percent), China (115 percent) with South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore scoring 104 percent.

    Thus, first-generation migrants produce second generations who either also cost a lot, or at best are budget neutral. Therefore, immigration changes nothing “for the better” as those in favour of open borders often claim. Certainly, on average the second generation in many respects performs better than the first, but this does not offset the costs of the first generation.

    A higher level of education on average implies a higher net contribution. High school performance scores correlated with a higher net contribution to Dutch state coffers, shown by the Dutch CITO tests which are administered at age 12. The CITO exam is an independent assessment of final year Dutch primary school pupils. It has also been an excellent predictor of later educational success.

    This suggests that selecting first-generation immigrants would be the best way to guarantee positive results for the host country’s treasury.

    There are considerable differences in CITO scores between different cultures: The CITO scores and the educational level of the second generation are strongly related to the educational level of the first generation. Therefore, the educational attainment of the first generation affects the net contribution of the second generation.

    It is evident from these findings that the Netherlands will not get richer through immigration. Solving dejuvenation by immigration resembles a Ponzi scheme at most because it does not provide a stable solution to population ageing. The underlying problems of low fertility and dejuvenation are not resolved since on average, the fertility of contributing immigrants is below the replacement level as well, because immigrants from most countries in the Americas, Europe and Eastern Asia already have low fertility rates.

    At best immigration will turn contributing citizens into minorities in their own countries with the costs for healthcare and state pensions rising rapidly.

    The authors pointed out that, given current costs and the projections for future immigration 2020-2040, the total cost of immigration will continue to increase, by an extra €600 billion. Cutting these costs would mean a drastic and fundamental policy change, sooner rather than later.

    Consider donating to support our work

    Help us to produce more articles like this. FreeWestMedia is depending on donations from our readers to keep going. With your help, we expose the mainstream fake news agenda.

    Keep ​your language polite​. Readers from many different countries visit and contribute to Free West Media and we must therefore obey the rules in​,​ for example​, ​Germany. Illegal content will be deleted.

    If you have been approved to post comments without preview from FWM, you are responsible for violation​s​ of​ any​ law. This means that FWM may be forced to cooperate with authorities in a possible crime investigation.

    If your comments are subject to preview ​by FWM, please be patient. We continually review comments but depending on the time of day it can take up to several hours before your comment is reviewed.

    We reserve the right to del​ete​ comments that are offensive, contain slander or foul language, or are irrelevant to the discussion.

    • Freedom Quest

      The “cost” is the ultimate loss of Western Civiliization.

    • Jerry

      The truth is “racist”…

    • Patricia

      I basically make about 💰$8,0O0-💰$12,000 a month online. wqdx It’s enough to comfortably replace my old jobs income, especially c0nsidering I only work about 10-13 hours a week from home. I was amazed how easy it was after I tried it

      copy below web………>>>>————


    France could offer its UN permanent seat to EU

    ParisFrance's seat at the UN could be given to the European Union to promote the creation of an EU standing force after Australia made it clear that it would be pursuing nuclear technology for its submarines together with the US and UK.

    Italy: Nationwide house raids against vaccine opponents

    MilanThe Milan Public Prosecutor's Office has launched searches of anti-vaccination opponents in six Italian cities. Allegedly the members of the Telegram group "The Warriors" planned violent demonstrations against the Covid-19 policy of the Italian government.

    Orban offers Pope copy of 1250 letter in which a Hungarian king pleads for help against Tartar invasion

    BudapestDuring his visit to Budapest on Sunday to celebrate mass, Pope Francis met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose anti-migration policy in Hungary he does not share. The Pope received a copy of a letter reminding him why he should be more circumspect in his views.

    EMA: Almost a third of Covid vaccination side effects are severe

    BrusselsThe reported suspected side effects for the four Covid vaccines, which have only been conditionally approved in the EU, are record-breaking after just 8 months. Serious side effects have been reported.

    Breaking news: UK government drops Covid passport

    LondonIn the UK, Health Minister Sajid Javid has told the BBC that Covid passports will not be introduced in his country. When will European countries come to their senses?

    France: Thousands protest against ‘health pass’ for 9th weekend in a row

    ParisOn Saturday, demonstrators took to the streets in the French capital for the ninth consecutive weekend to express their displeasure with the health passport policy of the Macron administration. The protest quickly degenerated into clashes with the police.

    Key Dutch ministers in bed with the WEF

    The HagueAt the end of May, the Forum for Democracy led by Thierry Baudet, submitted a parliamentary question on the relations between cabinet members and Klaus Schwab's World Economic Forum. "We received evasive or even no answers to these questions," said Dutch MP Pepijn van Houwelingen.

    Marine Le Pen’s phone number leaked on social networks

    ParisThe cellphone number of the president of the National Rally was published on social networks. Many strangers called her, forcing her to change her number and file a complaint.

    Hungarian teacher promises better grades to vaccinated children

    TamasiParents have complained about the biology teacher at the Würtz Ádám Primary School and Elementary Art School in Tamasi, Hungary, because he wanted to reward students who had been vaccinated against the Coronavirus and punish those who had not received the jab.

    Serious vaccination side effects increase by a factor of 114 in Switzerland

    BernAccording to the Swiss regulatory authority, 137 people have died after the mRNA injections since the start of the vaccination campaign. And the serious side effects after the mRNA injections continue to increase.

    Go to archive