Skip to Content

Sekondi-Takoradi, Ghana. Photo credit Joshua Duneebon

Demography is destiny: The future will be African

Our future will be African. By 2100, one in three people on the planet will be African according to all demographic forecasts. Relative to other continents, this growth in Africa is unprecedented in human history.

Published: July 11, 2021, 12:18 pm

    Read more

    Because one in three people will come from sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria’s population will exceed that of China or India.  Within less than three decades, the Democratic Republic of the Congo will have 200 million inhabitants and Abidjan, the capital of the Ivory Coast will have 10 million people.

    In the Sahel the overall population of at least four countries will triple, according to Gilles Pison, professor at the National Museum of Natural History in Paris (MNHN – Sorbonne Universités) and associate researcher at INED.

    The African population, estimated at 140 million in 1900, reached one billion inhabitants in 2010. It will number 2,5 billion in 2050 and more than 4 billion in 2100, according to United Nations projections. One in 6 people today lives in Africa. In 2050, it will be 1 in 4, and more than 1 in 3 by 2100, according to these same projections.

    This rapid increase is because of the excess of births over deaths, with four times more births than deaths. Although the mortality on the continent may be the highest in the world, and fertility has also declined, African women were still giving birth to an average of 4,5 children each in 2017, compared to more than 6,5 forty years ago.

    By comparison, only 2,1 children were born per woman in Asia in 2017, 2,0 in Latin America, 1,9 in North America. and 1,6 in Europe. So even if fertility continues to decline, as the average United Nations scenario assumes, this will not immediately result in a significant decrease in the growth rate.

    Assuming that African fertility suddenly falls to 1,6 children per woman as in Europe or China – a highly improbable scenario – the population would however continue to increase for a few more decades to reach nearly 1,6 billion in 2050. Africa’s population includes many young adults of childbearing age, and therefore the result would still be a high number of births.

    The evolution of fertility: several recent surprises

    Population projections published by the United Nations in 1981 predicted 10,5 billion human souls on the planet in 2100 in their average scenario. The latest projections published in June 2017 predict 11,2.

    The total is therefore a little higher but the real change is in the distribution by continent: The revision is also downward for Asian and Latin America. Conversely, Africa, projected to have 2,2 billion inhabitants in 2100 according to the 1981 vision, now has double that with 4,4 billion.

    Another surprise, more recent, is from intertropical Africa: A fertility decline was expected later than in Asia and Latin America, because of its delay in socio-economic development. This is indeed what happened in North Africa and Southern Africa, but not in intertropical Africa where the decline in fertility is very slow – hence an increase in projections for Africa.

    Economic development and the decline in fertility often go hand in hand, the second being often seen as a consequence of the first. The education of women is a key factor in this process: those who have been to school give birth to fewer children than those who have not. Asian and Latin American countries have invested heavily in education decades ago. In intertropical Africa this has not happened.

    The question of the “demographic dividend”

    To convince African governments to make birth control one of their priorities, international organizations have been promoting a “demographic dividend”.

    In fact, when fertility drops rapidly in a country, the share of young people drops sharply without the share of older people increasing significantly at the start. As a result, the share of the working-age population increases significantly, providing an opportunity for the country to develop economically . This favorable situation lasts only a short while. A few decades later, the very large number of people of working age have aged and considerably increased the weight of the elderly population.

    It is estimated that a number of Asian countries, including China, have benefited from this dividend and may have accounted for up to 10-30 percent of their economic growth. On the other hand, the Latin American countries would not have benefited for the most part, for lack of jobs created in sufficient quantity to employ the excess of people of working age.

    In the case of Africa, the conditions for a demographic dividend do not exist: Fertility is falling too slowly and assuming it begins to decline rapidly, the outlook for job growth is too modest and is unlikely to absorb the additional labor. In the unlikely event that there is a demographic dividend, it is only a distant prospect.

    Therefore, Africa will not escape a doubling of its population by 2050 due to demographic inertia that no one can prevent. Not only the continent, but the world will suffer the consequences.

    Consider donating to support our work

    Help us to produce more articles like this. FreeWestMedia is depending on donations from our readers to keep going. With your help, we expose the mainstream fake news agenda.

    Keep ​your language polite​. Readers from many different countries visit and contribute to Free West Media and we must therefore obey the rules in​,​ for example​, ​Germany. Illegal content will be deleted.

    If you have been approved to post comments without preview from FWM, you are responsible for violation​s​ of​ any​ law. This means that FWM may be forced to cooperate with authorities in a possible crime investigation.

    If your comments are subject to preview ​by FWM, please be patient. We continually review comments but depending on the time of day it can take up to several hours before your comment is reviewed.

    We reserve the right to del​ete​ comments that are offensive, contain slander or foul language, or are irrelevant to the discussion.

    • Johann Theron

      Depopulation is encouraged through the pill, abortions, female education, higher GDP/capita, destruction of tribal cultures via borderless policies and of course encouragement of urbanization. The problem in Africa though, is that urbanization don’t reduce fertility.

      • Racewar2021

        Castration is the answer.

    • Lara Gravenor

      Africa is forever poor. Just more and more poor people in Africa.

    • Racewar2021

      And these excess africans will come to our sacred Europe.

      • GeorgeFloydNeededTVs

        If the headline is true, then there is no future. Have you seen what happened when control passed over in South Africa? There is no Wakanda!

    • Reg Jukes

      So why do other counties need to send aid in the way of Meds food etc.

    • Patricia

      I basically make about 💰$8,0O0-💰$12,000 a month online. wqdx It’s enough to comfortably replace my old jobs income, especially c0nsidering I only work about 10-13 hours a week from home. I was amazed how easy it was after I tried it

      copy below web………>>>>———- http://bucks2.com/

    • Berhat72

      I basically make about 💰$8,000-💰$12,000 a month online. wqdx It’s enough to comfortably replace my old jobs income, especially considering I only work about 10-13 hours a week from home. I was amazed how easy it was after I tried it

      copy below web……………….. >>>>> http://bucks2.com/

    • STAYONOFFENSE

      One to three small theatrical Nuclear devices placed strategically should do the trick, and stop alot of the carnage too.

    • Houdini

      This is especially true now because most Africans don’t wear masks and aren’t vaxxed, and hardly any of them died of covid, while the rest of the world is dying off.

    Africa

    The biggest riots in 100 years in South Africa

    JohannesburgDuring the week of 11 to 17 July 2021, South African experienced devastating riots, looting and violence during which more than 200 people lost their lives and R100 billion (about €6 billion) of damage was done to businesses and general infrastructure.

    Coincidence? Three presidents dead after blocking distribution of Covid vaccines

    The leaders of three different countries died after having stopped the distribution of the experimental Covid-19 jabs. All three countries took the decision to distribute the vaccines to their citizens only after their leaders passed away.

    South African Minister of Police complains about curious discovery of ammunition

    Richards BayThe South African Minister of Police, Bheki Cele, claims to have "discovered" thousands of rounds of ammunition just lying in the street. This unlikely scenario of abandoned ammunition amidst the ongoing plundering of the country, is designed to justify the upcoming Firearm Amendment Bill which will end citizen's right to self defense.

    South Africa: Whites abandon their homes as mobs spread mayhem

    DurbanDurban is the third most populous city in South Africa after Johannesburg and Cape Town and the largest city in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal. Zulus, the largest black tribe in the country, form the largest single ethnic group in the city too. FreeWestMedia has received reports of residents in areas hardest hit by ongoing riots, abandoning their homes. What may have started as a political protest has descended into anarchy.

    South Africa: EFF’s Julius Malema call on supporters to join looters

    JohannesburgEconomic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema has incited his followers to continue the violence and looting should the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) be deployed in support of the police. Even as President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke in a televised address to the nation on Monday, illegally armed, violent marauding mobs were challenging law enforcement.

    Violence, retribution and the South African justice system

    PretoriaHowever one looks at it, the country has lost its way: the South African police are not in a position to handle crime effectively, declared the ANC’s own chair of the parliamentary portfolio committee on police Ms. Tina Joemat-Pettersson in November 2020. For four years in a row, the police service could only garner a qualified audit because the department did not fulfil the requirements set out for a clean audit. Reasons such as unauthorised spending and the poor quality of the department’s financial affairs were given for this failure.

    Macron tells Africans ‘France has no fixed identity’

    PretoriaEmmanuel Macron concluded his two-day visit, to Rwanda and then to South Africa, on a very political note. Praising, in a speech to the French community in South Africa, the “partnership” that he wants to forge with the countries of the continent, the president said he aimed to “change views and minds” on France's relationship with Africa. For France the message was also very clear: Macron declared that "France has no fixed identity".

    Video clip shows how South African hero fights off armed attack

    PretoriaA film clip from South Africa shows how a former task force member heroically fights his way through an armed robbery on a motorway in the South African capital Pretoria. Despite the fact that the vehicle is hit by bullets a large number of times, the man, Leo Prinsloo, 48, does not lose his cool but rams the robbers' cars several times before he, armed with a semi-automatic rifle, chases them on foot.

    The race for Sudan

    KhartoumIs Washington once again trying to be a hegemonic power in Africa? Are the Americans back?

    ‘Who are the great apes?’ French school in Morocco stirs up controversy

    CasablancaConfusion, anger, incomprehension… The parents of students at the French primary school Ernest Renan in Morocco were somewhat taken aback. On Thursday March 25, their children received a peculiar science exercise.

    Go to archive