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Patrick Basham. Photo: Cato Institute/ Donald Trump. Wikipedia

Top US pollster calls Biden win ‘statistically implausible’

Leading American pollster Patrick Basham believes that a victory for Joe Biden was "statistically implausible" given the overall data compiled on the election.

Published: December 7, 2020, 9:09 am

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    The founding director of the Democracy Institute, Basham told Fox News that non-polling metrics had a “100% accuracy rate in terms of predicting the winner of the presidential election”.  It is because the data includes party registration trends, the number of individual donations, and Google searches.

    All non-polling metrics predicted President Trump would win in 2016. It predicted the same outcome of the 2020 US election.

    “If we are to accept that Biden won against the trend of all these non-polling metrics, it not only means that one of these metrics was inaccurate this time for the first time ever. It means that each one of these metrics was wrong for the first time, and at the same time as all the others. It is not statistically impossible, but it is statistically implausible,” Basham explained.

    In an op-ed in the Spectator, Bashman had also analyzed “peculiarities” from the poll that had lacked “compelling explanations”. He highlighted Democrats counting ballots without Republican observers, ballots arriving late, the failure to match signatures on mail-in ballots, and low absentee ballot rejection rates.

    Donald Trump had increased his vote count while seeking reelection, which has generally been the case when incumbent presidents run for reelection.

    “If you look at the results, you see how Donald Trump improved his national performance over 2016 by almost 20 percent. No incumbent president has ever lost a reelection bid if he’s increased his votes. Obama went down by three and a half million votes between 2008 and 2012, but still won comfortably,” he said.

    “If you look at those results, you see that Donald Trump did very well, even better than four years earlier, with the white working class. He held his own with women and suburban voters against all of most of the polling expectations, did very well with Catholics, improved his vote among Jewish voters. He had the best minority performance for a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1960, doing so well with African-Americans, and importantly with Hispanics.”

    In fact, the president’s performance was so good, that most data sets would show Trump as the winner. “We know from the vote itself, the alleged vote, the alleged result, that something very strange has happened,” Basham concluded.

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