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Is the sun setting on Ukraine's chances of remaining intact as a country? Photo credit: Max Kukurudziak
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Former US NATO policy planner urges Ukraine to cut a deal

There has been a recent rise in voices in the US advising a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine war – positioning themselves against the Kiev government, which is clinging to continued fighting despite mounting casualties.

Published: June 10, 2022, 1:00 pm

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    American intelligence agencies recently complained that they have too little information about Ukraine’s operations.

    Now a former top official in the US administration under Ronald Reagan, Hugh De Santis, has come forward with the assessment that Ukraine will not be able to win against Russia. The US must convince Kiev to negotiate with Moscow to end the conflict, said De Santis, who was responsible for planning NATO and arms control policy under former US President Reagan.

    The former top official told the The National Interest magazine on Saturday that defeating Russian forces on the battlefield and restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including the reconquest of Crimea, would, in his estimation, only be possible at the price of further carnage, the possibility of a larger war, destabilizing the EU and more economic hardships.

    “But would it be worth the cost of more carnage in Ukraine, the possibility of a wider war in which chemical or tactical nuclear weapons might be used, further disruption of the world economy, and renewed European polarization?”

    After all, “a Ukrainian military victory is not in the cards, and a negotiated outcome is the only realistic goal,” he said.

    CFR discussion signals similar problems

    The Council of Foreign Relations held a public discussion at the end of last month about the war in Ukraine in which former Deputy Commander of  EUCOM, Stephen M. Twitty also pointed out that the Russians were making headway at the expense of their neighbour.

    “And so there’s no way that the Ukrainians will ever destroy or defeat the Russians […] There’s no way that the Ukrainians will ever have enough combat power to kick the Russians out of Ukraine as well, and so what does that look like in the end game.”

    Twitty then noted that very little was known about the state of losses in the Ukrainian forces. “And I also want to remind you we hear a lot about Russian casualties and Russian losses. We hear very little about Ukrainian losses, and keep in mind they’re losing soldiers throughout this war as well. They started at approximately two hundred thousand. Who knows where they are today?”

    He urged the Ukrainians to cut a deal before it is too late.

    Ukrainian human rights commissioner lied to obtain military aid

    While the Western media have focused mainly on Russian losses and difficulties since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, there have recently been increasing reports of signs of disintegration among the Ukrainians.

    Lyudmila Denisova, former human rights commissioner of the Ukrainian parliament, was removed from office after a vote of no confidence with a majority of 234 votes to 9.

    The reason, above all, was the spread of misinformation that “only harms Ukraine”, namely “the numerous details of ‘unnatural sexual crimes’ and sexual abuse of children in the occupied territories, which were not supported by evidence”.

    Denisova has admitted her lies about mass rapes by Russians. She said she wanted to convince Western countries to send more weapons to Ukraine. In an interview published by a Ukrainian news portal, she admitted that her untruths had achieved their goal.

    “For example, when I spoke to the International Affairs Committee in the Italian Parliament, I heard and saw the tiredness regarding Ukraine, you understand? I spoke about terrible things in order to somehow get them to make the decisions that Ukraine and the Ukrainian people need,” she explained.

    Denisova noted that the Italian Five Star Movement was initially opposed to supplying arms to Ukraine. However, after her speech, one of the party leaders said that they would support her, including by supplying arms.

    Although her allegations of gang rape were pure invention, they were repeatedly picked up by the mainstream media.

    Military aid not forthcoming

    A number of hoaxes have spread regarding the war. These include radiation leaks at besieged nuclear power plants that turned out to be nonexistent, the misinformation about the events on Snake Island, the fake Ghost of Kiev, and the “attack” on a Holocaust memorial that never happened.

    Due to a lack of supplies and ammunition, entire units are increasingly surrendering and even deserting, while the Russian side continues to advance. Even the Ukrainian President Zelensky had to admit last week that the Russian armed forces had taken control of about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory.

    According to British daily The Guardian, the Ukrainian army has almost used up all its artillery ammunition. The deputy head of the GUR of Ukraine Vadym Skibitsky noted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine use from 5 000 to 6 000 shells a day, but they lose a lot in an artillery war. Therefore, it was necessary that the West increase supplies, Skibitsky added.

    “Now this is an artillery war and we are losing in terms of artillery. Now everything depends on what (the West) gives us. Ukraine has one artillery piece for every 10-15 Russian artillery pieces. Our Western partners have given us about 10 percent of what they have.”

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